Farm Journal's
Ag Economists
Monthly Monitor
A vetted group of agricultural economists provide a monthly read on the U.S. ag economy, tracked over time, providing a gauge on important industry drivers.
Farm economists say today’s ag slowdown “isn’t a collapse, but it’s a grind.” From trade woes to rising costs and consolidation, experts warn recovery could take time, even as livestock markets stay strong.
The Farm Journal September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor makes it clear: Working capital is thinning, export markets are shaky and long-term crop margins could get ugly. But for now, one thing is still keeping its strength: Americans’ appetite for beef.
There’s light at the end of the tunnel, but we might not see it completely turn around for two to three years,” says Grant Gardner, University of Kentucky ag economist.
Farm Journal’s September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found nearly half of the ag economists surveyed say the U.S. ag economy is worse off than a month ago and will remain depressed or even worsen over the next 12 months.
With New World screwworm within 70 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border, the livestock industry is on high alert. USDA continues to fight the northward spread of the parasite while debate continues on the border closure.
Fifty-three percent of agricultural economists surveyed in the July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor say the row crops side of agriculture is currently in a recession, which is down from the 72% who responded that way in May.
The April Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found most agricultural economists think it could be 2026 before we see Congress final pass a new bill. One reason why is the fact Congress passed $10 billion in ECAP payments late last year.
The stakes are high with the latest trade war. While the risks of losing more market share into China are a concern, the upside potential of a trade deal with China could be monumental.
Agriculture is an export dependent business. At peak uncertainty, the industry could go either way: Gain ground with new trade deals or take a big hit as exports further decline.
The March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found 62% of ag economists think the row crop side of agriculture is currently in a recession, and 85% think the situation will accelerate consolidation on farms and among agribusinesses.