Randy Martinson says confirmation of 29 million bushels of soybeans sold to China is already priced into the market after the big rally to 17-month highs in soybeans. So, the market is seeing a traditional “buy to rumor sell the fact” reaction.
Soybean futures closed nearly $.33 higher on the January contract. Craig Turner with StoneX said there was unconfirmed market talk of multiple cargoes of soybeans being sold to China through the Pacific Northwest.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the fear of Brazilian beef tariffs being lowered was part of the selloff in the cattle futures last week. However, Brazil tariffs are still at 66.4% so he says it was already priced into the market.
Despite the strong political rhetoric at the center of cattle and beef prices, as well as meatpackers seeing major losses, economists say rebuilding the U.S. cattle herd will be the slowest in history.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX says USDA only lowered national corn yield .7 bushels per acre to 186 which was a disappointment for the bulls.
Cattle market fundamentals remain unchanged while psychology shifts the market due to the President’s comments and industry interference.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds continue to liquidate their long positions on the fear of the Mexican border reopening but lower fed cash is also a negative.
Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says corn and soybeans saw chart breakout with fund buying heading into the USDA report on expectations of lower yield but also watching for China buys in the daily export sales.
The grain markets fought off early weakness on Wednesday to close near the highs of the day and stage a strong technical close according to Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing.
Oklahoma State’s Derrell Peel says the beef industry needs time — not politics or policy — to solve beef supply and demand realities.