Early Monday the cattle futures are mostly higher, hogs lower and grains are back up led by soybeans.
Cattle Digest Lower Brazil Beef Tariffs
Cattle futures opened mostly lower Monday morning with news over the weekend that the Trump administration will be lowering tariffs on 200 food items, including beef from Brazil and Argentina.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the fear of Brazilian beef tariffs being lowered was part of the selloff in the cattle futures last week and why the market started off lower. However, futures stabilized because he says the 50% tariff on Brazil beef was only lowered 10% and having some clarity take uncertainty out of the market. Brazil is the top importer of beef trim blended into ground beef.
Uncertainty on Mexican Border Reopening Hangs Over Market
With one band aid ripped off Kooima says the next fear for the cattle futures is when the Mexican border will reopen to feeder cattle imports. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said last week there was no date for reopening the border but did acknowledge the two countries were trying to establish a protocol and that President Trump is anxious to resume trade. Plus, Kooima says the colder weather will slow the spread of the parasite, so he thinks the policy change will happen sooner rather than later.
Cattle Futures Bounce Off Support
Despite a lower weekly close in live cattle futures the market at least held key support with the February live cattle contract testing the July breakout chart $215 support and holding. January feeder cattle managed a slightly higher close for the week and held $310 chart support, posting a low of $310.05 on Friday. Kooima says double bottoms seldom hold in the cattle market however so the jury is still out on whether or not these technical areas will continue to hold.
Cash Trade Lower Last Week and Again This Week
Producers lost their leverage last week and faced lower fed cash prices at $228 in the South on the volume, down $3. The North saw mostly $351 dressed volume, down $8. Live sale prices started at $226 paid by a regional early in the week but by Friday was down to $222 and he expects lower trade again this week. He cautions that weights are starting to creep up as producers are feeding cattle longer. Packers are also starting to increase the kill to take advantage of better margins and slaughter for the week was at 576,000 head, up 16,000 last week.
DOJ Investigation of Meat Packers
President Trump doubled down over the weekend saying the Department of Justice investigation of the meat packers.
A Bloomberg opinion story over the weekend highlighted President Trump calling on the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the so-called Big Four meatpacking conglomerates “that have a hammerlock on beef processing, distribution and pricing in the U.S.” Trump’s allegations are serious: price fixing, collusion and market manipulation by what he calls “foreign-owned meatpacking cartels.” Trump posted on his social network “Action must be taken immediately to protect consumers, combat Illegal monopolies, and ensure these corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American people.”
Kooima is doubtful the probe will result in any action just based on past history regarding the investigations during COVID and after the Holcomb, Kansas plant fire.
Hogs Still Trying to Stabilize
Lean hog futures have traded two-sided during the session still looking for a low, which may be difficult with the cash market still sliding. The Lean Hog Index was down another $.89 coming into the session at $87.89.
Grains Resume Rally as Trump Touts China Soybean Buys
The grain market has resumed it’s rally after the corrective selling on Friday after the USDA report data has now been worked in. Kooima says soybeans are leading the rally due to President Trump saying he would be personally talking to China about buying U.S. soybeans. This comes despite sales of only 12.2 million bu. in the flash export sales backlog reported on Friday.
USDA also reported a correction to their cumulative daily export sales announcement was issued on November 17, 2025 which actually confirms a cancellation of China soybean buys.
The initial version of this announcement reported the sale of 130,000 MT of corn to Japan on 10/24/2025 which should not have been included. This sale has been removed. The initial announcement also listed the sale of 232,000 MT of soybeans to China on 11/03/2025. The correct quantity is 132,000 MT, as 100,000 MT has been canceled. The corrected sales volumes will be included in the Weekly Export Sales report released on 12/11/2025.
