China

The entire grain complex saw profit taking Monday after hitting chart resistance according to Allison Thompson with The Money Farm.

China’s pledge to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans is facing questions over timing, storage capacity and price competitiveness, leaving markets uncertain whether the full promise can be met before year-end.

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says he would be more confident about the lows holding in the cattle futures if three factors would turn positive.

The question now is was this just a correction of the oversold status in the cattle markets? While a higher weekly close is positive, Varilek says recoveries often come in three day waves.

DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says grains staged a surprise rally on news of China soybean buys but farmer selling pressure also subsided ahead of first notice day on Friday.

Hillari Mason with Pro Farmer says farmers had to roll or sell December futures or basis fixed contracts before Wednesday or risk delivery and so most of the commercial positioning is done which will take pressure off the market.

Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics says the grain complex also saw some buying interest on the lower U.S. dollar index, which reacted to U.S. economic data.

Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says the weakness in the grain markets last week and to start this week was tied to liquidation and pricing of basis fixed contracts against December futures before the delivery period starts. Once that’s out of the way what is the next move?

Exports in the first 10 months of the year reached 329,000 tons, almost triple what they were for all of 2024.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle were limit down early Monday on news that Tyson Foods will be closing its Lexington, Neb. beef processing plant on Jan. 20 and the Amarillo, Texas plant will go down to one shift.