China
Ted Seifried says the ag markets saw risk off selling across the commodity board and profit taking in the grains after the recent rally. But with the volatility in the soybean market is this topping action?
A new report spotlights how agricultural acquisitions and business strategy linked to the Chinese government have amassed production and power, and it’s being called into question by policy thinktank America First Policy Institute (AFPI).
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, Inc., says commodity wide selling is hitting the grain and livestock futures early Thursday and some of it is tied to uncertainty regarding the future of tariffs.
Mark Knight, Farmer’s Keeper Financial says,"China did keep 10% tariffs in place. So,it’s really a 13% total tariff for incoming soybeans. Argentina and Brazil get charged 3%. And so we’re still 10% higher than that.”
January soybeans rallied $.13 on Wednesday as China dropped it 24% retaliatory tariffs imposed on U.S. ag goods March 4 for one year.
Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says the market is digesting clarification from China on tariffs. Beijing says it will lower the 24% retaliatory tariffs but the cut still leaves a 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans imported into China.
The tariff cut still leaves Chinese buyers of U.S. soybeans facing tariffs of 13%, a cost traders said makes U.S. shipments too expensive for commercial buyers, compared to Brazilian alternatives.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says most of the grain and oilseed complex saw general profit taking Tuesday after hitting overbought territory.
The White House says China will buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans in late 2025 and 25 MMT annually through 2028, plus resume U.S. sorghum and hardwood log imports, clearing confusion over comments from Secretary Bessent.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the cattle futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet. Meanwhile, soybeans make new highs as the White House clarifies China will buy 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025.