Forecast
On Thursday, forecasters issued an El Niño Advisory, meaning El Niño conditions are now present and expected to gradually strengthen into the winter.
A quick planting pace and the possible return of El Nino meant traders have not been focusing on any weather issues. However, with drought continuing to expand, a U.S. weather market might be back in play.
The signs of El Niño grew even strong this month, and as the weather event looks to make its grand return, significant weather changes could be on deck for U.S. farmers this year.
The Corn Belt will see a cooler weather pattern set in, and parts of the parched Plains will see higher chances of rain during the next couple of weeks, according to Eric Snodgrass of Nutrien Ag Solutions.
The updated Seasonal Drought Outlook for the U.S. is painting a grim picture for many drought-plagued areas of the Plains, but forecasters also expect drought to improve in parts of Nebraska and Iowa.
From the potential for more cold weather later this week to additional moisture increasing chances for flooding in the upper Midwest, the forecast for the remainder of April could hold a few more surprises.
USDA’s latest Crop Progress confirms planting is just getting started across the Corn Belt, but as forecasts change to milder and drier trend, planting progress could speed up this week.
Both crops get a green light for planting this Wednesday and maybe even for Tuesday in central Illinois. Ferrie says let soil conditions, moisture and local weather forecasts drive your planting and tillage decisions.
Much of the U.S. will see above-normal temperatures next week, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at commodity prices. Fund liquidation seems to be a growing trend, with commodity markets under pressure in July.
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