Latest News From Inflation

Despite the markets pricing in lower interest rates, Arlan Suderman expects inflation to rear its ugly head sometime in 2024.

To wrap up 2023 I thought I’d show my list of good news that few believe: the good news with declining crime rates, wage growth and cooling inflation.

From the election to world trade, as well as geopolitical factors that have the potential to shape agriculture in 2024, the December Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor shows the possibility of several economic surprises.

Analysts say an initial cut could be made as early as first quarter 2024. One of the key factors the central banking system will consider is whether its inflation rate target of 2% has been achieved.

Farmers are opting to tap into their savings from recent prosperous years instead of taking out loans at the highest interest rates since 2007, according to surveys conducted by regional Federal Reserve banks.

While ag economists continue to be at odds when it comes to the likelihood of a recession in the U.S., some doubt the country's biggest importers will be able to avoid a recession over the next 18 months.

John Phipps says nobody is forcing Americans to pay for the corporate windfall, but as consumers continue to spend, manufacturers to retailers have no reason to lower prices and profits.

Mortgage interest rates just hit a twenty-year high, topping 7%. High borrowing costs will slowly dampen farmer demand for acres as record land prices mean all but a few will have to borrow some to buy.

For 2024, USDA projects that food price inflation will be lower than that seen in 2023 and significantly lower than the rise seen in 2022.

Meanwhile, service prices and the core index (which excludes food and energy) remain high, with the core CPI descending to 4.8%.

The CPI for May shows egg prices experienced the largest monthly drop in 72 years, but the price consumers are paying for a dozen eggs is still well above average over the past 10 years.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point and signaled it may pause further increases. In an overt shift, the central bank no longer says it "anticipates" further rates will be needed.

The causal link between the Federal Reserve discount rate and inflation is obvious to all serious armchair economists, but calls for an impending recession in the U.S. are missing a few details. John Phipps explains.

A study released by Farm Bureau finds 86% of Americans are concerned about food insecurity, but their trust in farmers remains high at 89%.

Between the 2022 CHIPS Act and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, there's a policy push to bring the production of both semiconductor chips and nitrogen to the U.S.

John Phipps says eggs are a perfect example of an inelastic product – one barely sensitive to price. And as egg inventory ramps back up, it may be an indicator of what it could mean for egg prices in the months ahead.

Farm Action is asking the FTC to explore why the nation's largest egg company is seeing record-high profits while consumers pay record-high prices. Ag economists say the jump in egg prices is simply supply and demand.

The Labor Department showed annual inflation cooled in December, with food prices up 0.3%. And while some food costs are showing improvement, the cost of eggs has spiked since last year.

Inflation and interest didn’t stop Iowa farmland values from reaching their all-time high in 2022. However, the higher interest rates don’t typically affect the land market values for one to two years.

Experts say the Fed is looking for signs of weakness in the economy before deciding interest rates have been raised sufficiently to curb inflation. Some signs are available now, says Vince Malanga, LaSalle Economics.

The end of the year is closing in. Have you considered new prepaid expense moves? According to Paul Neiffer, farm CPA at CLA Connect, you should.

Global inflation will likely decrease to 6.5% in 2023 and to 4.1% by 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast.

USDA raised its consumer food price forecast again, to 8.5% to 9.5% for 2022. The agency had initially predicted a 2% to 3% rise in prices. Eggs, fats and oils, and poultry prices are making the biggest gains.

The consensus ahead of the FOMC report is a jump of 0.5 percentage points, says Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk. But what should the Fed actually do?

“Our nation faces a high risk of rampant inflation due to our high national debt,” says Mike Walsten of LandOwner. “Our total debt now exceeds $30 trillion — that is $30 with 12 zeros!”

From record-high gas and diesel prices on the road to a major spike in the price Americans paid for their Memorial Day weekend barbecue essentials, shoppers are seeing price spikes everywhere they go.

Gas prices are above $4 a gallon in every state for the first time ever, and with the average price of gasoline posting another new record Thursday, it’s causing shoppers to alter their appetites at the grocery store.

We’ll start with the good news: The April data market saw a slight easing in the financial metric. The bad news: Inflation is still near 40-year highs.

See how rising costs impact you and your family.

Inflation predictions were so wrong for so long, the real thing has flummoxed us entirely. The other problem with this abrupt price change is the number of things to blame.

Decision making changes during periods of inflation. If the historic inflation continues, knowing how inflation impacts decision making will help you make better choices, and your plans will be more likely to succeed.