Market Analysis
Soybeans bounced on Friday and were up Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says to go back and retest this week’s highs or move to new highs soybeans will need to see proof of China purchases.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market is seeing a short covering or technical bounce after an ugly down week. So is the fund liquidation done yet or is this a dead cat bounce?
Ted Seifried says the ag markets saw risk off selling across the commodity board and profit taking in the grains after the recent rally. But with the volatility in the soybean market is this topping action?
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, Inc., says commodity wide selling is hitting the grain and livestock futures early Thursday and some of it is tied to uncertainty regarding the future of tariffs.
January soybeans rallied $.13 on Wednesday as China dropped it 24% retaliatory tariffs imposed on U.S. ag goods March 4 for one year.
Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says the market is digesting clarification from China on tariffs. Beijing says it will lower the 24% retaliatory tariffs but the cut still leaves a 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans imported into China.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says most of the grain and oilseed complex saw general profit taking Tuesday after hitting overbought territory.
Arlan Suderman, with StoneX, Inc., says soybeans are rallying on the White House interpretation of the deal which assumes China will buy 12 MMT in the next couple of months on top of the nearly 6 MMT it purchased earlier in 2025. However, he says China has not confirmed that.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the cattle futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet. Meanwhile, soybeans make new highs as the White House clarifies China will buy 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says with China potentially buying 441 million bushels of U.S. soybeans in the next two months prices need to move a lot higher.