Wheat
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, thinks the party is over in the grains, at least for now, due to several key factors.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says grains saw profit taking after running up into some chart resistance.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says funds continue to cover shorts in the grain markets but there are some fundamentals also helping to support the rally.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures says corn continues to move higher on fund buying and tighter corn stocks from USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report. He thinks corn could eventually take out resistance on the charts and move higher.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says corn and soybeans have rallied into chart resistance and will need three main fundamental factors to combine to keep prices moving higher.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says soybeans continue to see Brazil weather concerns and technical buying. When soybeans put in an early harvest low they tend to rally around 80 cents and have cleared that mark already. However, if Brazil stays dry the market could continue to price that in.
Grains started out mostly lower Wednesday but Darin Newsom with Barchart says they continue to see buying on the dips as funds are covering shorts and taking profits.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says it wasn’t the best close for the grains as the markets ran up into some chart resistance and are starting to look a little tired.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says a combination of factors drove soybeans higher including South American weather and China economic news. Corn and wheat followed. Cattle futures also made new highs for the move pushed by cash.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says corn and soybeans saw pressure from harvest and better South American weather prospects. Cattle and hogs soared on the heels of the higher stock market.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says wheat is pulling down corn with a higher dollar and rains in the SW Plains, while soybeans hold gains on strong export demand. Cattle are rallying in sympathy with the stock market.
Darren Frye, Water Street Advisory, says the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points could be huge for agricultural markets.
Darren Frye, Water Street Advisory, says the 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed was anticipated but is friendly for the ag markets.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says November soybeans are finally above the 50 day moving average for a number of reasons, including more talk of China business.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says wheat led the grain complex lower after better rain forecasts for U.S. and Black Sea production areas, but all the grain markets ran into chart resistance.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cash cattle market put in a low last week and futures were sharply higher so the market just feels better. Soybeans and corn may have put in seasonal lows but he cautions further upside may be capped by harvest pressure.
Corn and wheat ended higher for a third week, while soybeans have put in four weeks of higher closes. Alan Brugler thinks wheat might be trying to forge a low, but it might be too early to make that call on corn and soybeans.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says early cash has been steady at $181 in the South helping to push cattle futures. Row crops are extending gains post WASDE, while wheat adds weather premium.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says soybeans saw profit taking with better than expected ratings, reigniting fears of higher yields in the September WASDE. Corn saw spillover from lower soybeans and crude oil.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, thinks the biggest yield numbers have already been traded in the corn and soybean markets and represent the contract lows in August.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, says record yields may already be priced into the market but USDA will need to verify that or corn and soybeans may retest the lows.
Arlan Suderman with StoneX talks about what he’s watching for in the WASDE and harvest results to determine if harvest lows have been forged in corn and soybeans.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk says grain markets scored reversals Friday on profit taking by fund traders after hitting key chart resistance. However, it was triggered by the bearish outside markets and caution ahead of the September WASDE Report.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says bearish outside markets spilled over to cause risk off selling in grain and livestock futures Friday, but grain markets says some profit taking and positioning ahead of the WASDE.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says grains have had a good run on fund short covering and will need some new bullish news to keep going and get above chart resistance.
The new numbers show that net farm income will fall $6.5 billion or 4.4%. This is compared to projections released in February suggesting it would fall 26%.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says grains are seeing near term support from global weather concerns and improving demand. Livestock end in the red with a poor technical close in cattle on lower cash.
Rich Nelson with Allendale says supply and demand factors are combining to push the market higher and he isn’t sure the rally is over yet.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says grains are pricing in ideas that corn and soybean yields are not as big as feared. That’s what they found in their nationwide annual yield survey. However, South America’s crop size may also be declining. So what will that mean for the September WASDE and can grain prices continue to rally as a result?
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says grain are higher early Wednesday. The market has been pushed by fund short covering, lower yield ideas and better demand. However, upside may be limited especially as farmers sell on the rally. Livestock are mixed.