The latest drought monitor shows three-quarters of the U.S. is now dealing with some level of drought or dryness. Of that, 60% falls in the D1 moderate drought to D4 exceptional drought categories, the highest level since November 2022. To put it in perspective, drought coverage has only exceeded 60% about 30 times in recent history, 25 of those during the widespread drought of 2012 and 2013.
The drought and dryness picture is even clearer in the latest root zone moisture map from NASA, which shows the amount of moisture in the top 3' of soil versus a historical average.
The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the western Plains is parched and in need of a rain.
Unfortunately, those areas might not see any measurable rain for a couple of weeks, causing the drought area to further expand and deepen.
Drought Monitor Shows Expanding Footprint
“The Drought Monitor has been roughly 80% now for over a month,” says Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow, Nutrien Ag Solutions. “Remember, that’s using all drought categories, but 80% abnormally dry to exceptionally dry is a big area that’s coming out of a winter and spring with drought concerns going into summer.”
In the Southeast, he says Arkansas is showing a 15" deficit since last October. Recent forecasts for rain have been a disappointment or missed the driest areas altogether, creating a historic drought profile.
“The Southeast is enduring one of the driest springs it has had historically going back to the late 1800s. The drought there is a rough picture,” Snodgrass says. “The high plains are absolutely bone dry. Big dust storms. Nebraska’s really taking a beating. They’re pre-irrigating the crop.”
Winter Wheat Acres Could Be Abandoned
In winter wheat country, 68% of the acres are experiencing drought. Nationally, only 34% of the winter wheat is rated good to excellent. In Texas, 54% of the hard red winter wheat crop is rated poor to very poor, indicating some areas could see acres abandoned.
“I think there’s going to be a lot of lost acres. They’re waiting on rain that now if it comes, it’s almost too late,” Snodgrass says. “I was talking to a grower on the tip of the Red River, and he said he’s already had the insurance adjuster out and was looking at 1 bu. to 19 bu. yields. The crop is gone.”
Any Relief in the Forecast?
Snodgrass says the quick transition over to a super El Nino could provide some drought relief to those areas ... eventually.
“I think we’re going to see rains relieving the drought pressure — not alleviating, but helping in the Plains and in the Southeast in May,” he adds.
Unfortunately, Snodgrass says that relief will not last all summer.
