Colder air is drifting toward much of the Corn Belt to end the week. It is advancing through the central U.S. and then will continue its chilly journey toward the East Coast.
The cold air is coming from Canada, says Matt Yarosewick, AgDay meteorologist. In its wake will be the possibility of a hard freeze, in areas such as North Dakota, northern Minnesota and northern South Dakota.
“Then that frost and freeze potential continues to move further to the south, including Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, northern Illinois and northern Indiana,” he says. “A light freeze or area-wide frost will be a possibility there on Saturday morning.”
Here’s the current frost outlook:
October Weather Outlook
Harvest progress is picking up across the U.S. As of Oct. 2, 20% of the U.S. corn crop has been harvested, which is slightly below the five-year average of 22%.
For soybeans, 22% of the crop was harvested as of Oct. 2. That’s just below the five-year average of 25% harvested by early October.
The Climate Prediction Center just released its latest outlook for October:
“The CPC forecast is very biased toward the next two weeks,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions. “The drier weather in the central U.S. and wetter conditions over the four-corners states represent the pattern through mid-month, but there is evidence the pattern could become much more active after the next two weeks.”
For the next month, Snodgrass says the most important weather feature to monitor is the position and strength of the Pacific Jet Stream.
“Most forecast models are predicting that the jet will extend farther east toward the Gulf of Alaska and resist large blocking features,” he says. “This forecast behavior is mostly due to the recent resurgence of La Niña, as the trade winds crank up again throughout October.
The most likely outcome will be an early onset of fall rain/snow in the Pacific Northwest and an increase in a fall low-pressure system development across the U.S.”
Even though the near-term forecast calls for dryness in the central U.S., Snodgrass expects an uptick in fall low-pressure systems after Oct. 10.
