Summer Solstice Sparks Beginning of Flash Drought in the Midwest
Today's the first official day of summer, and it sure feels like summer in many corners of farm country.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports May 2022 was among “Earth’s top 10 warmest months,” and that 2022 is the sixth-warmest year on record so far.
June may follow suit, as the U.S. has seen more than 1,853 heat records broken already this month.
“We think June is going to be the hottest ever from a cooling degree day standpoint—the air conditioning is running everywhere,” says Michael Clark, chief meteorologist with BAMWX.
Clark shares his forecast with Chip Flory on AgriTalk:
Many regions have seen warm nighttime temperatures, Clark says, but some relief is on the way.
“We have a cold front coming this weekend that's going to knock some of this heat out,” he says. “It may bring some rain to the Northern Plains, North Dakota and Minnesota.”
Minnesota is underway to the driest start of June on record dating back the last 130 years, Clark says: “They are certainly going to be welcoming this rainfall.”
However, the system this weekend will not bring widespread rainfall.
“The forecast going forward for the next 10 days shows everybody is below normal in the rainfall department,” Clark says. “I think there could be some significant heat and dryness set up here in the heart of July.”
Clark says the current hot-and-dry pattern is being driven by:
- Global wind patterns are slowing down and creating more ridging.
- Water temperatures in the northeast Pacific Ocean are cold.
- A potential third year of back-to-back La Ninas.
“There's several things driving the hotter and drier weather pattern, so it's kind of well supported,” Clark says.
The heart of the U.S. will be the bullseye for this heat and dryness, which could create a flash drought.
“Unfortunately, because of how quickly we've gone dry and how warm we are going to continue to be and the lack of rain in the forecast, it's a classic flash drought scenario,” he says. “I do believe that is problematic going into July.”
Typically, a hurricane or tropical storm is needed to abate a flash drought. But, Clark says, those tend to not arrive until mid to late August.
“That's typically where relief would come from,” he says. “In the 30-to-45-day period, I'm not very optimistic on that at this point in time.”
Watch a weather update from AgDay:
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