After a Volatile Week on the Tariff Roller Coaster, Will Ag Markets Stabilize?

Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says it was roller coaster week in both grain and livestock futures due to on again, off again tariff talk. Are calmer waters ahead?

Corn, cattle and hogs close higher Friday, with weakness in soybean and wheat markets.

Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says it was roller coaster week in both grain and livestock futures due to on again, off again tariff talk.

On Thursday the Trump administration once again delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April 2 for non compliant products under USMCA and then renewed the threat of reciprocal tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber on Friday.

However, on Friday President Donald Trump said he may implement reciprocal tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy products at any moment.

The volatility in the markets has been ramped up on the uncertainty.

When does the market start to stabilize?

Sloup likens this to the 2018 trade war and the more recent Russian invasion of Ukraine the spring of 2022.

He says at some point the market will get numb to the headlines and go back to trading its own fundamentals but predicting an exact date that occurs is difficult.

Sloup says the grain markets are generally choppy in March and ahead of the USDA Prospective Plantings Report end of the month.

For producers looking to protect themselves and sleep at night, Sloup recommends options.

Live and feeder cattle futures were sharply higher with help from higher cash.

Light cash cattle trade broke in the North at $200 to $202 live and $315 dressed, up $2 from last week’s weighted average.

Some light scattered business was also reported in parts of Kansas at $198, $1 higher than last week’s weighted average.

Sloup says cattle had an impressive week closing above key moving averages and in the face of the melt down in the financial markets.

This should keep the long funds interested in defending that position.

Lean hog futures ended higher on Friday and look and Sloup says they look like they’re bottoming.

AgWeb-Logo crop
Related Stories
Alan Brugler with A&N Economics, Inc. says the grain market traders are cautiously optimistic a cease fire or peace deal between the U.S. and Iran is near and took out war premium Tuesday.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says at least initially it looks like the cattle futures had already anticipated the negative report data with the sell off late last week.
Last week Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, predicted the highs had been made in the grain markets on May 13. After reading the White House fact sheet on the China trade framework, he says he hasn’t changed his mind.
Get News Daily
Get Market Alerts
Get News & Markets App