Grain and hog futures end lower on Wednesday, with cattle higher.
Soybeans Hit New Lows for The Move
Soybeans scored new lows for the move on the last trading day of 2025. Randy Martinson says the market saw technical selling on end of quarter and end of year positioning. It was also first notice day for January soybean contracts and there were heavy deliveries that weighed on the nearby contract. “We had deliveries that were the highest, since November of 2021,” he explains.
The risk off environment in other areas of the market also spilled over to soybeans and the entire grain complex as gold and silver tumbled on the last day of the year and forced some margin calls.
South American Weather Bearish
Another major bearish factor is South American weather is favorable for all but Southern Argentina. Martinson says, “What we’re seeing is the South America weather played a big role into it. Brazil has been getting you know, their average rainfall. Things are looking pretty good there. They’ve started harvesting the northern regions you know. So I think that added a little bit to it. Argentina is now expected to remain dry for the one for the seven day forecast, but they 8-14 day calls for rain to move in. So, I think that put extra pressure in on the soybean market here today.”
China and Export Concerns
Martinson says he still thinks the market has lingering concerns about China. “Whether or not they’re going to buy that 12 MMT, but also since shipments have been so slow that there could be some cancellations that come later.” That comes on the heels of rumors this week of additional China business, seven to nine cargoes, on top of the confirmed flash sales from China. However, that wasn’t confirmed on Wednesday morning, so Martinson says that was also disappointing.
Brazil’s Lower Soybean Prices a Drag
The drag on U.S. soybean prices has also come from lower prices in Brazil. “Well, it’s not helping, but I think in, you know, outside of China where we still have that extra tariff on. I do think that we are competitive for the rest of the world, to be able to buy beans from us. And I think that was part of the what we saw yesterday with that unknown destination coming in and buying a pretty good Jag of soybeans,” he adds.
Chart Support for March Soybeans?
So with fresh for the move lows where is the next chart support for March soybeans? Martinson says around $10.28 which coincides with the harvest lows in October.
Corn Tests Bottom of Trading Range
Corn futures saw some spillover pressure from lower soybeans and wheat, but held slight gains on Wednesday and the bottom end of the trading range. Support is down around $4.35 on the March contract and corn effectively is still trading sideways, according to Martinson, due to strong demand. “Exports continue to be good. Ethanol demand continues to be good. You know, the trade is anticipating lower yields in the January 12 report. So I think that’s all helping us to keep the the traders in the corn market a little bit honest.”
Can Corn Break Out of Its Sideways Pattern?
Martinson says to break out of the sideways pattern corn will need some help in the January WASDE. “I think it’s going to take USDA lowering the yield a little bit in that January twelfth report. The trouble is that we’re going to see maybe lower yields, but we could see feed demand lowered a little bit. And that’s going to be the concerning part.”
Wheat Falls
Wheat futures also saw pressure this week erasing last week’s gains. Martinson says there were several bearish factors including a marketing year low weekly export number and an increase in the Argentina crop to a record 27.5 MMT. Plus, news China was going to pull wheat out of their reserves was bearish. “The rumor was on Monday that China was looking at pulling out 7.25 MMT, almost 200 million bu. of 2017 wheat out of their reserves. That’s going to be feed wheat, and that’s going to replace a lot of corn feed demand. And I think that upset the wheat and corn markets.” he says.
Wheat Removing Weather Premium
Martinson says wheat was also removing weather premium. “Last week, you know, of course, we were talking about the much above normal temps and the low precip for the Southern Plains. And I think that’s supported the market. Now this week, of course, they’re talking about a little more rain coming into play there.”
Wheat Disregards Black Sea War Headlines
Black Sea peace talks were on again, off again and both Russia and Ukraine launched substantial attacks against each other this week. However, Martinson says the market has become numb to the headlines. “It just seems to be such a, dog and pony show there that we really aren’t trading it. They keep talking about the peace deal, but they keep seeing an increase in aggression against each country. So until we actually see the war stop, I don’t think the wheat market’s going to care. And even then, I don’t know if it’ll matter because exports will take a while to to go back to normal for both Ukraine and Russia.”
Cattle Rally with Feeders Breaking Out
Live and feeder cattle futures ended higher on Wednesday. Martinson says live cattle are still moving sideways on the charts but feeder cattle made new highs for this move and closed above the gap area that was filled on the charts. He says its now possible for feeders to continue to push higher. “Well, technically that was the signal that we were looking for. And it does look like the market has opened itself up to to maybe make a test of that 67% retracement, which looks like it could be about $10, $15 above where we’re trading right now. If that breaks through, then we’re looking at closing the next gap and maybe making a run for the old high.”
Can Feeders Pull Up Live Cattle?
So if feeders are the leaders can they pull live cattle above the current chart resistance levels? “I think they would have to because then we’re starting to get the relationship between live cattle and feeder cattle too wide again.” However, he doesn’t think will happen until the fed cash market also pulls up futures.
Another NWS Case
There was also news of another New World Screwworm case in a calf 197 miles from the Mexican border and psychologically that was also a boost to the feeder cattle market as it may delay the reopening of border to imports.
