Market Analysis
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, is still optimistic the cattle market will be able to achieve all-time highs again in both cash and futures in the next few months.
The higher day in corn after the WASDE was encouraging to Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, “I’ve kind of been telling folks no new bearish news, is actually good news,” he explains.
Grains end lower except corn after USDA makes on only slight adjustments in the June WASDE. Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says now the market will prep for the month end reports and watch weather.
Grains mixed after the WASDE with very few changes for corn and soybeans. Wheat did see slightly lower U.S. ending stocks and Russian, EU and Ukraine production dropped a total of 8 mmt says Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net.
Cattle rally on strong cash but face a tug of war due to bird flu news says Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek. Hogs try to follow but struggle with sliding cash. Row crops higher, wheat lower correcting pre- report.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says traders evened positions Tuesday going into the USDA reports. However, he’s expecting very few revisions on a U.S. basis so he’s looking at global numbers.
Grains see a corrective day and WASDE report positioning with wheat sharply higher, row crops lower. Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says cattle also saw profit taking ahead of the Fed announcement.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says he was impressed with how corn and soybeans managed to end higher on Monday, despite the collapse in wheat.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn and beans end higher, which was impressive considering the collapse of the wheat market which has been down nine days. Cattle rally, while hogs fail.
Cattle futures rally as Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says Northern cash trade topped at $193 live late Friday. Hogs consolidate. Row crops bounce, despite the lower wheat market.
More fund selling Friday in the grains shows the funds are back selling on any rally and reestablishing their short position says Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions.
Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says speculators look like they are re-establishing their short positions at least in the corn and soybean markets. “They are selling on any rally,” he says.
“It’s like farmers threw in the towel after getting sick of waiting for better prices or realized they’re going to need bin space,” says Jerry Gulke. He shares four points that might mean lower prices aren’t over yet.
Grains back lower as wheat drags down corn and soybeans and Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says funds are back in sell mode. Cattle are trying to bounce awaiting cash news while hogs are mostly lower again.
Corn and soybeans see double digit gains on short covering and talk of China biz says John Payne, Advance Trading, while wheat struggled. Cattle were hit by more bird flu news, hogs reversed off new lows.
Corn and soybeans see double digit gains on fund short covering after seven down days. John Payne, Advance Trading, says the markets were oversold and due for a correction.
Cattle lower on more bird flu news but at least holding support. Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek. Hogs make more new lows for the move and may contract lows. Grains see a short covering bounce.
Jeff Hoogendoorn, Professional Ag Marketing, says the cash and cutouts have been stagnant. So, the lean hog futures have continued to take all the premium out of the market to trade down to the index.
Grain and livestock end lower. Hogs make new lows for the move, pulling down cattle but funds are selling in livestock and back selling in grains. Jeff Hoogendoorn, Professional Ag Marketing, wraps up the day.
Corn and soybeans saw some early short covering as they are oversold but are getting drug down by wheat and fund selling says Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures.
Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says with corn rated at 75% good to excellent the market sees the crop getting off to a good start, so the mentality has changed to “rain makes grain.”
Grain and livestock futures ended mostly in the red on Tuesday. Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says the mentality in grains as turned to “rain makes grain”, especially with the favorable crop ratings.
Grains turn mixed after early pressure. Jon Scheve with Superior Feed Ingredients says the markets are searching for direction, but weather is still the main focus. He has marketing advice.
Alan Brugler, Brugler Marketing, says it was a risk off day in grain markets which were removing risk premium. They also did technical damage.
Alan Brugler, Brugler Marketing, says it was a risk off day in grain and cotton markets removing weather premium. The lack of money flow into grains, the stock market and crude oil was also evident to start June.
Cattle fall after lower weekly closes and softer cash trade, holding chart support. Hogs struggle on fund selling. Soybeans pull corn lower and wheat off its highs. Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, has more.
Grain futures ended lower for the week removing weather premium. Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says, “It feels like it’s doing a warning shot just to remind us that the crop is getting planted.”
Technically, Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says weather rallies can be fleeting and this week there were sell signals in the grain market.
Grain and cattle futures end mostly lower on Friday and were lower for the week. Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says weather, crop ratings and what the funds want to do next will determine future market direction.
Grains recover after three down days. Is this recovery all technical and will it last? Darin Newsom, Sr. Market Analyst for Barchart, says wheat has the best chance with concerns about drought in HRW areas.