Market Analysis
.Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says there’s a report from China that says the talks by trade officials prior to the summit in China is not going well.
Arlan Suderman with StoneX says the soybean market is still pricing in optimism about China and biofuels.
Soybeans recovered on Tuesday on market talk that China was looking to buy soybeans off the Pacific Northwest says Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net.
Grain and cattle futures ended mostly lower on Monday caught up in money flow and the selloff in the stock market tied to tariff concerns says Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the USDA Cattle on Feed report was providing some support. The on feed number came in at 98% of a year ago, placements were at 95% which was below trade estimates and marketings were at 87%.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says the market fears that China will use the ruling as leverage to get out of its trade framework struck with the U.S. on Oct. 30 and that could include its soybean purchase commitments.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market is also awaiting cash direction.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are getting overbought and ran into another layer of chart resistance Wednesday but higher cash could push the market to new highs.
Darin Newsom, Senior market analyst with Barchart, Inc. says the algorithm traders have been chasing the headlines of the China story and increased biofuels blending levels.
Soybeans started off slightly lower on corrective selling but quickly found buying interest says Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag.
Soybeans were lower by 3 to 4 cents on Friday on profit taking heading into the holiday according to Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions but ended higher for the week.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says news of a possible China trade truce extension fueled hopes for additional purchases of American agricultural products, including soybeans.
Soybeans gapped higher on the open on Wednesday night on news that China and the U.S. are going to extend the trade truce another year and may cut tariffs says Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading says wheat led the grain markets on short covering Wednesday and pulled corn and soybeans off early lows.
Risk off in the outside markets also played a role in the selling pressure according to Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer. However, he doesn’t think all the China demand is priced into the soybean market.
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher early Monday extending gains after Friday’s higher cash trade says Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek.
He thinks cash could be higher again this week.
He thinks cash could be higher again this week.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says the soybean market is still trying to price in the possibility of China buying another 300 million bu. of soybeans this marketing year.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says, “This is, you know, basically 8 million metric ton or roughly 294 million bushels of added soybean demand that we were not expecting.”
Traders want proof from China of the potential soybean buys according to Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain.
Tyler Schau of AgMarket says cattle futures make new highs for the move on higher cash and the report tailwind. Soybeans followed soybean oil which rallied as Treasury released 45Z guidance and that pulled up corn.
Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says it was a money flow day as grains were influenced by the selloff in crude oil and the precious metal markets, plus the higher dollar.
With the lack of rebuilding the strong cattle market could be extended another year.
Ag market activity Friday and much of the week was dominated by money flow and spillover from outside markets like the metals, the energies, and the dollar. That’s according to Allison Thompson with The Money Farm.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle markets have gotten caught up in the outside market money flow but are also seeing some caution ahead of the USDA semi-annual cattle inventory report to be released Friday.
Grain markets were higher overnight and on the opening Thursday making multi-week highs and new highs for the move before failing. Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says the asset reallocation in the outside markets spilled over into the ag markets.
Alan Brugler with A&E Economics, Inc. says funds buying in the grains Wednesday and early Thursday was tied to money flow. The key to keeping it going is to get through chart resistance.
Grains markets ended higher across the complex, driven mostly by money flow according to Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing.
Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says soybeans were also getting a push from South American weather, with wheat adding risk premium on U.S. weather concerns.
Soybeans and soybean oil saw a higher day on Tuesday driven by hopes President Trump would make a biofuels policy announcement regarding 45Z or the RVO proposal while speaking in Iowa after the market close says Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing.
Soybeans and bean oil were slightly higher on Tuesday morning with hopes President Trump may make an announcement or at least talk positive about the 45Z program according to Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity.