Market Analysis
Last week we asked: Are ag commodities due for a reset? This week’s market moves show the answer. Now, the question is: Where is the bottom? Jerry Gulke weighs in.
“We are certainly seeing a different tone than what we saw in the first six months of the year,” says Jerry Gulke. “What we seem to be seeing now is demand destruction versus demand reduction.”
After trending lower for several weeks, the grain markets have rebounded—at least for now. So, did the markets find their bottom?
Grains sharply higher adding risk premium on the escalating Black Sea war and hot dry weather. Cattle see profit taking on higher corn and a bearish COF. Hogs consolidate. Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures has more.
Grains sharply higher putting in war and weather premium & w/China soybean biz. Cattle set back with higher corn and sorting through USDA data. Hogs mixed. Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage has more.
Will it rain or not? That’s the key question for this weekend. Jerry Gulke weighs in on what’s in store with this volatile weather market.
“This is the first boots-on-the-ground assessment and that ought to be revealing,” says Jerry Gulke.
Gulke expects USDA to drop the national average corn yield to 172.5 per acre and leave the soybean yield unchanged. The key, he says, will be what USDA does with its demand estimates.
The September USDA reports provided some shock and awe, especially for soybeans. December corn prices were down 6¢ and November soybean prices were up 36¢ for the week ending Sept. 9.
The grain markets had another volatile week, highlighted by USDA’s Grain Stocks report. Jerry Gulke provides his take on the markets moving forward.
After several weeks of volatility, the grain markets were relatively quiet this week — as harvest charges forward. Could this be a positive sign for prices? Jerry Gulke provides his take.
With U.S. soybean harvest at 88% complete, Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the market is sizing up the crop and buyers are trying to lock in their needs.
The latest USDA report, mid-term elections and a collapsing U.S. dollar all impacted the grain markets this week. Jerry Gulke shares his take on what this means going forward.
AgDay TV Markets Now: Tommy Grisafi, Advance Trading discusses what’s next for the grain markets after a higher but volatile week as markets chased weather and war headlines.
December corn ended 22½ cents higher; November soybeans were up 31 cents; with Chicago wheat climbing 36 cents; Kansas City, 31 cents; and Minneapolis, 2 cents. How long with the volatility continue?
Grains mostly lower except old crop soybeans on profit taking & hedge selling. Grains had a higher but volatile week trading war and weather headlines but what’s next? Tommy Grisafi, Advance Trading has insight.
Thanksgiving normally marks a change in direction for the grain markets. Jerry Gulke sets the stage for this year’s potential moves.
If you have unpriced old-crop corn, you’re not alone. Jerry Gulke provides his tips for post-harvest grain marketing and how to approach your 2023 plan.
On the first trading day of 2022, corn and wheat prices were down. But soybean prices were higher this year. This year all three commodities took a hit on the first trading day.
Corn & wheat lower on profit taking, Soybeans off lows with higher BO, watching weather. Cattle 2-sided w/profit taking pre-reports and despite higher cash. Hogs consolidate. DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing has more.
“Human nature is to do nothing, but that means you can end up with three years of corn on your farm,” says Ben Brown, agricultural economist at the University of Missouri. “This strategy makes you proactive.”
Grains mostly lower with profit taking on better extended weather, but still supported by global supply concerns. Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities says cattle and hogs supported by higher cash.
AgDay TV Markets Now: Darin Newsom with Barchart says funds still buying and chasing Black Sea headlines in wheat, while profit taking hits row crops Thursday.
Wheat ends slightly higher Thursday, but corn and soybeans finally set back. Cattle hit new highs then crashed despite higher cash. Darin Newsom with Barchart has the analysis.
“There’s a place that you put on risk and there’s a place that you take it off. So, we decided to take some money off and put in the bank,” says Jerry Gulke, president of Gulke Group.
The grain markets are focused on planting progress — or the lack thereof. Jerry Gulke says the markets are building in weather premium as progress could see delays periodically especially in northern areas.
Sometimes it isn’t a matter of what direction prices are headed but where they are not headed. USDA has shaved demand, especially in corn. The long-term outlook might show corn prices have lower targets yet to come.
The major debate this year has been one of perceived tight stocks versus how high prices have or will impact global demand for U.S. agricultural commodities.
Iowa farmer Ben Riensche is excited about the opportunities current margins are providing to reinvest in his operation. He provides these tips for spending money during good times.
Grains two-sided with profit taking & hedge pressure offset by weather & global supply concerns. Live cattle make new highs then crash, hogs pushed by a rising cash index. Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing.