Market Analysis
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move Monday morning after a strong close Friday and higher weekly closes. However, the big catalyst is the bullish USDA Cattle on Feed Report data according to Rich Nelson of Allendale, Inc.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says the slide in soybeans has been a result of prices getting too high in anticipation of the China trade deal. Now prices are lower than before the purchases were announced. He’s hopeful a low is close.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle futures are higher despite some lower Northern cash trade. However, this week the trend has been sideways with the market unable to take out chart resistance.
Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says rumors of China purchases circulate nearly every time the corn market rallies.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, Inc. says corn is seeing some short covering but demand has also been a factor with ethanol production at a record level this week and exports continuing to run at a record pace.
Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans have also confirmed the head and shoulders top and are working lower completing the shoulder.
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans have served as an anchor for the grain markets on a host of bearish news items and fund liquidation.
As farmers look ahead to 2026, grain markets are sending mixed signals based on record corn exports, large supplies, federal payments and ongoing China trade uncertainty.
Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says the soybeans and wheat made new lows for the move on Monday. Grains have been suffering from a lack of bullish news and for soybeans China fatigue is also a factor.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures are overbought after last week’s higher weekly closes. So this is a healthy correction.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says part of the pressure in soybeans was technical selling but the market is also starting to trade the big crop potential in South America.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are finding support from sharply higher fed cash trade. So, if that can continue he is mildly optimistic about futures continuing to push higher.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says the $10,80 level has been strong support in soybeans and held with the help of more daily export sales.
John Zanker with Farmers Keeper Financial says soybeans could not hold early gains despite more export business and may be eyeing the gap area from Oct. 24.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says early pressure in soybeans came from follow through selling and more confusion on China’s purchase commitments. However, soybeans bounced off of strong technical support at the days lows.
Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain says the soybean market is reading the USTR comments as there is no real deal and actually has been trading that way for a while now.
Brian Grete with Commstock Investments says he was a bit surprised by how aggressive USDA was in raising corn exports to 3.2 billion bu. which is a record.
Alan Brugler with A&N Economics, Inc. says the soybean market continues to be plagued by uncertainty over China’s soybean purchase commitments and a close below $11 projects lower prices.
Brad Kooima says both live and feeder cattle futures markets struggled Monday as the huge recovery off the lows put contracts up into 50% retracement levels.
Soybean futures ended sharply lower on Friday, with the January contract down 33¢ for the week. Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says the poor close is tied to mixed messages about a signed soybean agreement with China and sales progress.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says Thursday saw the volume of live sale prices at $220, up $10 from last week but even some $222 developed in Iowa.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading says bull markets need to be fed daily and so corn and soybeans would need a combination of factors to converge to retest the November highs.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says grains took the path of least resistance on Wednesday trading lower with a lack of fresh bullish news.
Corn and wheat futures were lower early Wednesday seeing some profit taking after a higher close Tuesday says Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the market was adding some geopolitical risk premium with tensions rising in the Black Sea region.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says so far its estimated China purchased 3 MMT but in order for China to keep on pace it would need to buy over 2 MMT a week through the end of 2025.
The entire grain complex saw profit taking Monday after hitting chart resistance according to Allison Thompson with The Money Farm.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says he would be more confident about the lows holding in the cattle futures if three factors would turn positive.
The question now is was this just a correction of the oversold status in the cattle markets? While a higher weekly close is positive, Varilek says recoveries often come in three day waves.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says grains staged a surprise rally on news of China soybean buys but farmer selling pressure also subsided ahead of first notice day on Friday.