2022 Planted Acres: Corn Down 4%, Soybeans Up 4%

For 2022, USDA are expecting more soybean acres than corn. That’s according to the 2022 Prospective Plantings report released on March 31.

Acreage estimates include: 

• Corn: 89.5 million, down 4% from 2021
• Soybeans: 91 million, up 4% from 2021
• All Wheat: 47.4 million, up 1% from 2021
• Cotton: 12.2 million, up 9% form 2021

Take Our Poll: USDA's Prospective Plantings Estimates

Ahead of the report, analysts were predicting:

• 92 million for corn 
• 88.7 million for soybeans
• 48 million for wheat

USDA predicts 317.4 million acres of principle crops. That is 1.2 million acres higher than final acreage in 2021.

“We’re not seeing a resurgence in acres like we were really expecting,” says Rich Nelson, chief strategist with Allendale. 

Listen in as Nelson discusses the report data with AgDay's Clinton Griffiths:

Corn planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 43 of the 48 states. Record high acreage is expected in Nevada and South Dakota. Record low acreage is expected in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. Acreage decreases from last year of 200,000 or more are expected in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

“What this implies is we have a record 180-bu. corn yield,” says Bill Biedermann, co-founder of AgMarket.Net. “At that point we only have a 1.1-billion-bushel carryover. If we have a 178 bu. per acre national yield, you’re looking at below 1 million bushels in carryover, which is under pipeline. This report really sets the foundation for pretty wild weather market.”

Soybean planted acres will be up or unchanged in 24 of the 29 estimating states versus last year. Increases of 250,000 acres or more are anticipated in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Tennessee. If realized, the planted area in Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin will be the largest on record.

“We are seeing a shift to these soybean acres in a bigger way than what people thought — justifiably so when you look at the risk of the market, looking at the cost of production,” Biedermann says. “So, we with these big acres and a trendline yield, we’ll keep our carryover pretty close to that 500-million-bushel level. That would put us back to where we were 2019.”

Listen in as Biedermann provides report analysis:

If 47.4 million acres of wheat are planted, it will be the fifth lowest all wheat acres since records began in 1919. Growers intend to plant 11.2 million acres of other spring wheat, down 2% from 2021.

The largest increase in all cotton acres is expected in Texas. Compared with the previous year, only Arizona and California are expected to plant fewer upland cotton acres in 2022. If realized, Upland cotton planted area in California, will be a record low.

Other crop highlights include:

• Sorghum: Acres are down 15% from last year
• Barley: Acres are up 11% from 2021
• Sunflowers: Acres are up 10% from last year

Take Our Poll: USDA's Prospective Plantings Estimates

For the quarterly Grain Stocks report, USDA provided these estimates of on-farm and off-farm stocks as of March 1: 

• Corn stocks totaled 7.85 billion bushels, up 2% from the same time last year. On-farm corn stocks were up 1% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks were up 3%.
• Soybeans stored totaled 1.93 billion bushels, up 24% from March 1, 2021. On-farm soybean stocks were up 26% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks were up 22%.
• All wheat stored totaled 1.02 billion bushels, down 22% from a year ago. On-farm all wheat stocks went down 39% from last year, while off-farm stocks went down 17%.
• Durum wheat stored totaled 29.7 million bushels, down 30% from March 1, 2021. On-farm Durum stocks were down 44% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks of Durum wheat were down 13%.

“On the corn side these numbers were positive,” Nelson says. “The Grain Stocks report showed better-than-expected demand in the last quarter. The corn market is really looking at much tighter expected supplies.”

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