Corn Prices Chug Higher on Disappointing Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings
Scouts on day 3 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour Wednesday determined an average corn yield of 190.71 bu. per acre in Illinois, down from last year’s 196.3 bu. per acre estimate and but up from the three-year Tour average of 185.62 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1,249.70 for Illinois, down from an average of 1,279.79 in 2021 and but up from the three-year Tour average of 1,174.95.
In western Iowa, average corn yields for Districts 1, 4 and 7 were 181.12, 180.8 and 173.7 bu. per acre, respectively, compared to 183.96, 201.1 and 192.47 bu. per acre, respectively, in 2021. The averages for the previous three years for Districts 1, 4 and 7 are 183.37, 188.74 and 187.83, respectively.
Western Iowa pod counts for Districts 1, 4 and 7 averaged 1,089.74, 1,258.94 and 1,223.85, respectively, compared with 1,089.35, 1,225.24 and 1,367.61 averages for 2021. The averages for the previous three years for Districts 1, 4 and 7 are 1,066.2, 1,199.57 and 1,250.92, respectively.
Here's a quick recap with @BGrete of the #pftour22 results for Illinois and western Iowa. Dig into all the data here: https://t.co/YI1sUeuNpN @profarmer @FarmJournal pic.twitter.com/j891YgJtJ4 — Top Producer Editor (@topproducermag) August 25, 2022
On Thursday, corn prices jumped again. Prices are set for an week of back-to-back gains, the longest streak since May 2021.
“The general expectation was Illinois and most Iowa would be really good, and it’s maybe not as good as expected,” says Joe Vaclavik, president of Standard Grain. “The Crop Tour has had an impact on the corn market. The corn market typically doesn’t rally during Crop Tour.”
The Crop Tour is receiving national news coverage, such as a recent article from Bloomberg: US Crop Tour Stokes Fears of Looming Corn Shortage
The article reads:
Parched soils. Grasshopper infestations. Scorching heat. Hail damage. This year’s US corn crop has been put through the wringer -- and it shows.
Things are so bad that scouts currently on a four-day tour through the Midwest are finding plants that are stunted and browning. Scores of fields have visible impact from pests. Cobs of grain are unusually small, and sometimes, stalks aren’t producing the ears at all.
The rough conditions have shriveled crops in the western corn belt. Some scouts were holding out hope that perhaps better acres in the eastern half could salvage the national harvest. Now, that optimism is fading. Instead, there’s growing concern over a corn shortage. Read the full article.
“This is not inaccurate, but it is a bit hyperbolic,” Vaclavik says. “The reality of the situation is it is not an absolute disaster. The national corn yield will not be trend, it may be 5 bu. or 10 bu. below trend. This is not 2012.”
On Day 4 of the Crop Tour today, scouts will sample more fields in Iowa as well as fields in southern Minnesota. The Tour concludes tonight in Rochester, Minn.
Register to attend the nightly meeting tonight or you can tune in at 8 p.m. CDT for a 15-min. overview of results and crop reports.
Read more coverage of the 2022 Pro Farmer Crop Tour.
Check the latest market prices in AgWeb's Commodity Markets Center.
