Where will corn and soybean prices be this fall? Using history as a guide, be ready for very different prices than we see today, as prices typically shift from May to October.
That’s according to the recent analysis by economists at farmdoc daily. Read their analysis: Potential 2022 Fall Prices for Corn and Soybeans Based on History.
Researchers Gary Schnitkey, Krista Swanson, Carl Zulauf and Nick Paulson analyzed changes in future and cash prices for both corn and soybeans from May to October.
Their analysis finds that while futures and cash prices are directly correlated, cash prices decrease more often in years of falling prices than futures do.
Using CME futures and cash prices from 2001 to 2021, the year-over-year data shows:
• Corn cash prices have a 25% chance of being $7.59 in October.
• Soybean cash prices in October have 20% chance of hitting at or below $12.
Using the CME’s December futures and cash prices, researchers found outlooks on corn cash prices show almost no chance of $4 per bushel or lower. Around $5 or lower reigns slightly higher at 12% probability, with $6 or lower having odds of 23%.
Based on CME’s November futures and cash prices data, the researchers believe the odds of cash prices of $10 or lower soybeans come in at 5%, with $11 or lower prices near 8%, and 5% chance of exceeding $18.
From 2001 to 2021, the change in May to October corn cash prices averaged -2%, while soybeans averaged a 1% change.
More on markets:
Jerry Gulke: What Can Farmers Learn from the Stock Market Collapse?
Who Produces What? Key Agriculture Stats from Around the Globe
