Price action: December SRW wheat rose 7 1/4 cents to $8.47 3/4, up 18 1/2 cents for the week. December HRW wheat gained 12 cents to $9.53 1/4, up 28 1/4 cents for the week. December spring wheat rallied 11 1/2 cents to $9.54 1/2, up 9 1/2 cents for the week.
5-day outlook: Wheat futures gave back much of an early-week rally but still ended with solid gains for the week. Prices may continue a sideways pattern next week as traders watch for updates on the Ukraine export deal and wait for USDA’s Nov. 9 Crop Production and Supply and Demand Reports. Weather in the U.S. Plains will also be followed. Precipitation expected over the next week will be greatest in the eastern half of the HRW region, where an increase in topsoil moisture is expected, World Weather said. Some light showers will occur in the west, though it will have limited effect on soil moisture. “More precipitation will continue to be needed,” the forecaster said.
30-day outlook: USDA’s record-low winter wheat crop ratings issued this week will limit selling interest in wheat futures in the coming weeks. However, with U.S. wheat exports in 2022-23 on track for a 51-year low, sustained rallies may be few and far between. Wheat bulls are encouraged by prospects USDA will lower estimated global ending wheat stocks that are heading for a six-year low.
90-day outlook: Wheat traders will continue to look to the key outside markets for price direction. Front-month crude oil futures rallied near a four-week high today, which may encourage speculative futures bulls to be more aggressive on the long side of wheat. Also, the U.S. dollar index has become wobbly lately, posting big losses today. Further and sustained weakness in the U.S. dollar in coming weeks could help keep a floor under wheat futures by making U.S. wheat exports more competitive on the world markets.
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