The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) increased its estimate of 2022-23 Aussie wheat production to 39.2 MMT, up 2.6 MMT from what was already expected to be a record crop. Besides record wheat production, the canola crop was also the largest ever and barley production was the third highest.
However, the abundant rains that boosted yields hurt crop quality. ABARES stated, “Record yields in Western Australia and South Australia have caused a greater occurrence of grain yield dilution, which has contributed to below average protein levels in wheat. Wheat harvested in Queensland, northern New South Wales and much of Victoria have generally seen less of a downgrade than those harvested in central and southern New South Wales. Industry have created new grades for grains and oilseeds this harvesting season in response to both the weather impact in eastern states and to better signal quality attributes to overseas customers.”
ABARES forecasts Australia’s wheat exports will total a record 28 MMT in 2022-23.
For 2023-24, wheat production is projected to fall to 28.2 MMT on the assumption that less favorable weather conditions will develop as La Niña fades and potentially shifts to El Niño, ABARES said. However, that would still represent an above-average level, with stored soil moisture seen benefiting winter crops, particularly in eastern states. Wheat exports in 2023–24 are projected to fall to 22.5 MMT, reflecting a fall in production.
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