Statistics Canada estimated Canadian all-wheat production at 29.5 MMT, down 14.2% from last year and 900,000 MT lower than the average pre-report estimate. The decrease is due to lower yields, which are expected to fall 18.6% to an average of 41.2 bu. per acre due to dry conditions across the Canadian Prairies, offsetting higher anticipated harvested area, which is expected to rise 5.6% to 26.3 million acres.
The anticipated decrease in total wheat production is largely attributable to spring wheat, which is expected to fall by 14.5% to 22.1 MMT. Spring wheat yields are anticipated to fall 19.9% to 42.6 bu. per acre, while harvested area is expected to increase 6.9% to 19.1 million acres.
Canadian canola production is estimated at 17.6 MMT, down 6.1% from last year but 200,000 MT above expectations. The anticipated decrease in production is due to lower yields, which are expected to fall 8.8% to 35.4 bu. per acre, while harvested area is expected to increase 3.0% to 21.9 million acres.
Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm said, “StatCan’s canola production number still might be a little high in our view as a good portion of this year’s increase was primarily in the southern and central growing regions, which should pull yield estimates lower still. I was thinking total wheat crop around 30.0 MMT; the spring wheat portion around 22.5 MMT. But I’m willing to accept StatCan’s estimates.”
