Corn Outlook for the Next 5, 30 and 90 Days (11/17)
Price action: March corn futures fell 8 cents to $4.85 1/4 and near the session low at Friday’s close. For the week, March corn rose 6 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Friday's technically bearish weekly low close in March corn futures sets up some follow-through chart-based selling pressure early next week, including a challenge of the recent contract low of $4.76 1/2 or below. Corn traders will be influenced by daily price movements in soybean futures next week. Soybean bulls faded badly late this week after nearby futures hit a nine-week high Wednesday. Corn traders will also keep an eye on the U.S. dollar index and crude oil prices in the near term. The USDX this week hit a 2.5-month low and crude oil prices posted a four-month bottom. Both markets are now trending lower on their daily bar charts.
30-day outlook: On the positive side for corn, the U.S. corn harvest is winding down rapidly, which means farmer selling at the local elevators and commercial hedge pressure will subside. Seasonals for the corn market also turn friendlier into the end of the year.
90-day outlook: Weather in South American corn-growing regions the next few months will move closer to the front burner of the corn market, especially since the weather in that area has not been great recently. World Weather Inc. today said relief from hot, dry weather in Brazil is coming later this weekend into early next week, although there will be the need for much more rain in the coming weeks. The forecast calls for periodic rainfall thereafter and it’s not likely to be nearly as hot and dry as it has been. Southern Brazil will experience less frequent heavy rain, but precipitation will continue to fall more often than desired. Argentina is expected to see a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next ten days, supporting summer crop planting and early development.
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