Soybean 5-30-90 Day Outlooks (Dec. 1)
Price action: January beans fell 16 3/4 cents to $13.45 1/2 but gained 14 3/4 cents on the week. January meal plunged $11.30 to $412.70 and gave up $21.40 from a week ago. January soyoil fell 81 points to 51.45 cents but gained 116 points week-over-week.
5-day outlook: Soybean futures ended the week in consolidative fashion as the near convergence of 10- and 100-day moving averages served as headwinds for bulls, while the 40- and 200-day moving averages barred a strong downside move. A push into near-term oversold territory could ignite corrective buying efforts into next week, especially if October’s crush pace proves to be a record. However, traders will keep a close eye on weather in South America, which will also drive prices.
Spillover soymeal selling into next week could also cast a shadow over the complex as Argentine soy acres are projected to rise as producers are expected to switch early corn acres to soybeans. Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier reported earlier in the week approximately 70% of the country’s corn was yet to be planted and noted that if weather cooperates during the growing season, the 2023-24 Argentina soybean crop could end up being greater than his current estimate of 50 MMT. Prior to last year’s drought, Argentina had long been the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal.
30-day outlook: Global production forecasts will continue to provide market direction for the soy complex. While USDA will not update U.S. soybean production estimates this month, traders will be tuned into global production estimates, namely for South America. Minimal changes for domestic use are widely expected from the government on Dec. 8.
90-day outlook: U.S. exports will continue to be of importance as the marketing-year progresses into the new calendar year. Chinese purchases will be of particular note after a recent drop in the U.S. dollar and delayed soybean planting in Brazil due to erratic weather in much of the country. On Thursday, USDA reported weekly sales of 1.895 MMT during week ended Nov. 23, which were up 97% from the previous week and 10% from the four-week average. The total surpassed pre-report expectations of 850,000 MT to 1.5 MMT. China and “unknown destinations” were the top purchasers during the week.
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