Thursday's Wheat Market Analysis (11/9)
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets saw spillover selling pressure today as corn and soybean futures markets suffered solid losses. Look for the wheat markets to continue to take price direction from the daily movements in corn and soybean futures markets.
Today’s monthly USDA supply and demand report contained no major surprises for wheat, showing U.S. wheat carryover for 2023-24 rising 14 million bu. from last month and which was 15 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. The agency put the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2023-24 at $7.20, down 10 cents from last month’s report.
Earlier this morning USDA reported U.S. wheat export sales of 354,300 MT during week ended Nov. 2, up 29% from the previous week, but down 26% from the four-week average. Sales were within the pre-report expectations.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, in SRW futures the sideways price grind at lower levels the past five weeks begins to suggest a market bottom is in place. SRW bulls' next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the October high of $6.04 1/2. The bears' next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.40 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.92 1/2 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $5.70 1/4 and then at the November low of $5.54 3/4.
December HRW futures have seen a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart stall out. The HRW bulls' next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at $6.87 3/4. The bears' next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.61 1/4 and then at $6.70. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.29 3/4 and then at the October low of $6.25 1/2.
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