Thursday's Wheat Market Analysis (12/28/23)
Price action: March SRW futures rallied 8 1/2 cents to $6.31 1/2 but closed off session highs. March HRW futures rallied 8 3/4 cents to $6.43 3/4. March spring wheat futures rose 3 3/4 cents to $7.35 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures showed relative strength throughout the session despite both corn and soybeans turning lower. News of a bulk carrier striking a mine in route to a Romanian port in the Black Sea helped lift wheat prices Thursday. Despite the risks to cargo ships, Zelensky noted that Black Sea corridor exports have reached 12 million tons since the Black Sea grain initiative ended, and that December produced “particularly significant results.”
Recent precip has improved the moisture profile across much of the central and southwestern Plains, while the potential is growing from a more significant cold air mass to arrive in the northern Plains after Jan. 7, states World Weather. Greater snow cover will be needed by then to protect crops from the cold, especially in the second half of January.
USDA is set to release the weekly export sales report in the morning. Traders expect net sales between 200,000 and 600,000 MT, according to a Reuters poll. Last week, export sales totaled 322,702 MT.
Technical analysis: March SRW wheat surged, though stayed within both Tuesday and Wednesday’s range. Bulls are seeking a close above resistance at $6.36 1/4 with further backing from $6.42 1/4, then $6.49 1/2. Support stands at $6.22 1/4, the 10-day moving average which capped losses today, then $6.17.
What to do: Market recommendations and sell alerts are available to Pro Farmer members only - view membership options here.
Hedgers: Market recommendations and sell alerts are available to Pro Farmer members only - view membership options here.
Cash-only marketers: Market recommendations and sell alerts are available to Pro Farmer members only - view membership options here.
