USDA raised its 2024 beef production forecast 81 million lbs. from last month due to higher steer/heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offsets lighter dressed weights. Beef production is still expected to decline 0.9% from last year. USDA increased the beef export forecast to reflect data through the first half of the year, though beef shipments are still expected to decline 3.2% from this year. The 2024 cash steer price was increased $1.25 from last month to $188.11, which would be up $12.57 from last year.
For 2025, USDA cut beef production by 20 million lbs., with the forecast now calling for a 4.8% year-over-year decline. The export forecast for next year was unchanged and expected to fall 15.0% from this year. USDA kept its cash cattle price forecast at $191.00, up $2.89 from this year.
USDA cut its pork production forecast for this year by 91 million lbs., reflecting lower slaughter and reduced weights in the third quarter. Pork production is still expected to rise 2.7% from last year. The pork export outlook was reduced 125 million lbs., reflecting trade data through June and expected reduced competitiveness in several key markets during the second half of the year. Pork exports are still expected to rise 4.4% from last year. USDA now forecasts the average cash hog price at $59.38, up 25 cents from last month and 79 cents above last year.
For 2025, USDA left its pork production forecast unchanged, calling for a 1.8% increase from this year. The export forecast was cut 250 million lbs., though shipments are still expected to rise 3.4% from this year. USDA lowered its 2025 average cash hog price projection by $1.00 from last month to $58.00, with prices now expected to fall $1.38 from this year.
