Price action: December SRW wheat rose 4 1/2 cents to $5.72 3/4 and nearer the session low. December HRW wheat closed up 12 1/4 cents at $6.86 and nearer the session high. December spring wheat futures rose 10 1/2 cents to $7.31 and nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets today saw short covering from recent selling pressure. Sharply higher crude oil prices today were a bullish element for the wheat markets, but the stronger U.S. dollar index today limited the bullish impact of higher oil. General risk version in the marketplace today due to the weekend violence in the Middle East somewhat squelched the wheat market bulls and may continue to do so in the near term.
Weather in global wheat regions leans bullish at present. World Weather Inc. today reported dryness in Western Australia is still a big concern. Brazil wheat is still facing a grain quality decline because of too much moisture. Argentina is still dealing with drought, although recent showers and those coming will offer some temporary relief. U.S. hard red winter wheat and wheat in the Pacific Northwest will need greater rain for improved crop establishment, said the forecaster.
There were no weekly USDA grain reports issued today as the agency was closed due to a federal holiday. Weekly export inspections data will be out Tuesday morning. The USDA monthly supply and demand report is due out Thursday.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat futures prices are still in 2.5-month-old downtrends on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.10. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.81 1/2 and then at $5.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.59 and then at $5.50. The HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at $7.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.25. First resistance is seen at $7.00 and then at $7.10. First support is seen at $6.75 and then at the September low of $6.62.
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