Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
USDA cuts South American soybean production, trims carryout
An $80.7 billion deficit in December drove the U.S. 2021 calendar year trade red ink to a record $859.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported.
As Brazilian farmers are planting their safrinha corn crop, they face atrazine shipping delays and unexpected canceled deliveries. . .
Wheat futures rose after Stats Canada reported a big drop in the country’s inventories at the end of 2021, fueling concern over tight supplies of milling-quality wheat.
U.S. officials reiterated their stance that China has resisted urgings to live up to terms of the Phase 1 trade deal in remarks to Politico.
Soybean futures surged on continued support from the two factors that have fueled recent strong gains – South American weather/crop concerns and strong fund buying.
European leaders build relations with Russia, U.S.
China and Russia outlined a vision of international relations anchored in their potential to reinforce each other in disputes with the U.S. and its allies. . .
All regions of Russia can ship wheat and barley to China. China previously restricted shipments from some regions of Russia due to phytosanitary concerns.
In the next 15 days, rainfall amounts will either make or break Argentina’s soybean crop, according to a weather report from the Rosario Grain Exchange.
SRW wheat futures fell for the first week in the past 3 and charts strongly suggest prices may have established a near-term peak, but the market has demonstrated a capacity to generate renewed buying interest. . .
“Exciting times I think are not behind us yet,” says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group. “Price volatility is going to be extreme from one week to another.”
Ukraine/Russia crisis: Diplomatic meetings scheduled for next week
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its Argentine soybean crop estimate by 2 MMT. . .
The initial hearing in the process to write a new farm bill took place Wednesday, with the House Agriculture Conservation and Forestry Subcommittee examining current conservation programs.
Growing certainty in Washington that Russia will order some kind of military strike
Last year, prices rallied from January to May, and a repeat certainly is in the cards.
Overall, global pork imports and exports are predicted to decrease from 2021 levels, according to the latest outlook from Rabobank.
“You know, it is really clear that the Chinese haven’t met their commitment in Phase 1,” Bianchi said.
Belarus is working with other countries to sell its potash internationally.
Ukraine/Russia diplomatic solution reduced
Farmer sentiment dropped six points as the January Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined to its second-lowest reading since July 2020.
Corn-for-ethanol use increased to 485.8 million bu. in December, according to USDA. . .
Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 4 MMT to 130 MMT.
Consultant cuts South America soybean production estimate by 5 MMT.
Cotton futures extended last week’s late upturn to reach the highest levels in 10 1/2-years behind strength in crude oil and U.S. stocks, and optimism over demand.
Officials meet this week on Russia/Ukraine
USDA’s attaché in Argentina lowered its estimate for the country’s corn production and exports by 3 MMT each . . .
USDA will release its semi-annual Cattle inventory report for the U.S. after the close Monday, which may keep many traders sidelined. The report probably will reflect ongoing herd liquidation across the U.S. . .