Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Corn, soybeans and wheat ended lower on Monday seeing some profit taking after higher weekly closes in the grain complex last week according to Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions. Weather was also a factor.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures opened lower on Monday on follow through selling after the bearish reversals scored on Friday. Corn and soybeans fall with rains over the weekend in the Corn Belt.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says corn made a bullish weekly reversal and that technical action could signal a bottom in the market.
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says grain markets rallied Friday and were higher for the week. The markets saw technical buying and short covering as traders were adding weather premium in the corn market, and to some degree to soybeans. But is weather enough to bottom the market?
House Ag Committee Ranking Member Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) has voiced sharp doubts that enough Democrats will support the Farm Bill 2.0 this fall.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw some routine profit taking Thursday and early Friday despite some strong cash trade but the market feels heavy. Grains are rallying on weather or is it technical?
China is threatening to derail a $23 billion deal that would hand over control of more than 40 global ports.
Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says corn took a break after a three-day rally running into chart resistance in the December contract around $4.25.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn tried to move higher early Thursday but the December contract is running into chart resistance with the 20-day moving average at $4.25. Can weather help the market get above this level?
The details revealed “some tariff price pressures may be appearing in the economy.”
Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge, says corn and to some degree soybeans, were adding weather premium as some heat comes is predicted for much of the Corn Belt in the extended forecasts. However, talk of China business also stirred up the trade.
Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says corn is extending gains for a third day still seeing short covering. However, the corn and soybeans markets are adding some weather premium with extended forecasts looking hotter in the 11-15 day time period.
The United States’ growing agricultural trade deficit has raised political alarm bells.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says corn was able to build on Monday’s key reversals and close higher for a second day. However, without a weather problem what is the likelihood the market can sustain a rally?
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says corn and soybeans are seeing some pressure from weather and Monday’s strong crop ratings. Cattle recover with their discount to cash.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says old and new crop corn hit fresh contract lows again Sunday night but was able to divorce itself from the rest of the ag markets due to several factors. Meanwhile, soybeans and wheat were lower trading tariff and sanction news.
The U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of a recession, with key indicators showing signs of stress.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are seeing some routine profit taking after hitting all-time and record highs again on Friday. Corn is seeing short covering off fresh contract lows but can it hold any gains?
Dave Chatterton, with Strategic Farm Marketing, says old and new crop corn both made new contract lows as the market faded the friendly ending stocks numbers in the July WASDE. He says the market was looking ahead with ideas of higher yields in future reports.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says grains posted lower weekly closes as the markets were pressured by ideal weather and ideas of higher yields.
A look ahead at the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments for the soy market.
Live and feeder cattle futures opened lower on Friday but quickly turned higher with strong cash news according to Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek. Grains see pressure from weather and the risk off outside market influences tied to the proposed tariff increases on Canada to 35% by Aug. 1
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the bounce in the grain markets was mostly short covering heading into Friday’s WASDE Report. However, the market may not trade the report numbers long before it turns it attention back to weather.
The Russian government ordered “necessary measures” to boost ag exports after wheat sales to start 2025-26 fell to their lowest since 2008.
Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says corn opened lower but was trying to recover early on short covering, but also following the strength in the wheat market. Soybeans fell further on tariff concerns.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities says corn finally saw a light short covering bounce after making new contract lows again early Wednesday in both old and new crop contacts.
Federal Reserve officials diverged at their June meeting about how aggressively they would be willing to cut interest rates.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, Inc. says grains continue to see non-commercial selling as the markets are becoming more comfortable about ample supplies. However, one factor not being talked about is demand is starting to fall.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his U.S. corn yield forecast at 180 bu. per acre, though he noted if weather remains favorable it could move higher.
Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer, says grains saw another ugly day with funds selling across the complex.