Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension Crops Economist, says weather and improved crop ratings and benign weather are weighing on the corn and soybean markets. However, tariff uncertainty is also negative for prices.
Chinese exports to ASEAN countries and the European Union have jumped.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, says funds sold aggressively and erased almost all of last weeks gains, as they came back from the holiday and saw no threat in the weather forecast.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futuresare showing resilience early Monday due to better than expected cash trade. However, grains are seeing heavy selling pressure.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the grain markets turned this week, not on trade news, but rather on less talked about factors.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says corn and soybeans saw follow through technical buying and short covering heading into a three day holiday but were also trading hopes for a positive trade announcement on China from President Trump.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trading higher building on Wednesday’s big reversal which was initially triggered by trade news but then better than expected cash trade added to the rally. Grains are also higher on hopes of an announced deal with China.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says it was a combination of short covering and technical buying heading into a long holiday weekend but the announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam also provided a spark.
Allison Thompson withThe Money Farm says some of recovery in corn is a technical bounce off of new contract lows in both old and new crop contracts on Tuesday. She thinks the corn market has also been getting ahead of itself and is too bearish on yield.
Corn-for-ethanol use totaled 449.4 million bu. in May.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says corn made new contract lows again as funds continue to sell with no major weather threat to the crop and improved crop ratings. But how low will prices go?
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures had a gap lower opening this morning on news from USDA of a phased re-opening of the border to Mexican cattle starting July 7.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says the June 30 reports have traditionally produced some fireworks, especially as they coincide with the end of the month and quarter which also triggers some portfolio re-balancing by the funds, but that didn’t happen Monday.
Trump’s approach involves threatening written notifications to trading partners outlining new tariff rates, a tactic aimed at forcing “deals” and punishing those not negotiating in good faith.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net says, the corn market is breathing a sigh of relief as some whisper numbers on acreage were substantially larger than the March intentions.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, chalks the recovery up to short covering heading into the weekend and position squaring ahead of Monday’s USDA reports.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says some in the market attributed the recovery to short covering but he thinks a some significant trade developments also played a role, as well as the upcoming USDA reports.
Historically, the corn market has been well over $5 with ending stocks this tight, says Darren Frye with Water Street Advisory, Inc. Will higher-than-expected corn inventory show up in USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report?
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are holding together despite lower cash trade, while grains are finally seeing a bounce in reaction to a China deal on rare earths.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says the funds continue to sell in the grain markets, and both old and new crop corn hit new contract lows Thursday before bouncing off those levels. So, how much more downside risk is there?
The International Grains Council (IGC) trimmed its forecast for 2025-26 global corn production.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the grain markets have seen massive fund selling this week pushing corn to new contract lows but it has been spurred by a number of bearish factors.
Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) approved increasing the percentage of ethanol mixed in gasoline.
The House and Senate reconciliation bills both propose major changes to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit, aiming to extend and reshape federal support for biofuels.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says grains failed to extend gains on Friday hitting chart resistance, but there was another big factor.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says Friday’s technical action in soybeans signals to him EPA’s higher blending levels for bio-mass based diesel for 2026 are priced into the soybean and bean oil markets.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grains are seeing a quiet session on Friday with thin post-holiday trade. However, at least wheat is failing to extend the big gains seen on Wednesday.
Rich Nelson with Allendale says wheat led the charge higher in the grains inserting war and weather premium but also seeing some short covering. Cattle and hogs recovered from Tuesday’s collapse.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trying to recover after tanking Tuesday due to geopolitical and war concerns and the lower day in the stock market.
Mike Minor of Professional Ag Marketing says grains saw technical buying on Tuesday while livestock fell with the financial markets on the conflict between Iran and Israel and a flip flop on ICE raids in packing plants.