Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Live and feeder cattle futures opened lower on Friday but quickly turned higher with strong cash news according to Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek. Grains see pressure from weather and the risk off outside market influences tied to the proposed tariff increases on Canada to 35% by Aug. 1
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the bounce in the grain markets was mostly short covering heading into Friday’s WASDE Report. However, the market may not trade the report numbers long before it turns it attention back to weather.
The Russian government ordered “necessary measures” to boost ag exports after wheat sales to start 2025-26 fell to their lowest since 2008.
Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says corn opened lower but was trying to recover early on short covering, but also following the strength in the wheat market. Soybeans fell further on tariff concerns.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities says corn finally saw a light short covering bounce after making new contract lows again early Wednesday in both old and new crop contacts.
Federal Reserve officials diverged at their June meeting about how aggressively they would be willing to cut interest rates.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, Inc. says grains continue to see non-commercial selling as the markets are becoming more comfortable about ample supplies. However, one factor not being talked about is demand is starting to fall.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his U.S. corn yield forecast at 180 bu. per acre, though he noted if weather remains favorable it could move higher.
Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer, says grains saw another ugly day with funds selling across the complex.
Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension Crops Economist, says weather and improved crop ratings and benign weather are weighing on the corn and soybean markets. However, tariff uncertainty is also negative for prices.
Chinese exports to ASEAN countries and the European Union have jumped.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, says funds sold aggressively and erased almost all of last weeks gains, as they came back from the holiday and saw no threat in the weather forecast.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futuresare showing resilience early Monday due to better than expected cash trade. However, grains are seeing heavy selling pressure.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the grain markets turned this week, not on trade news, but rather on less talked about factors.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says corn and soybeans saw follow through technical buying and short covering heading into a three day holiday but were also trading hopes for a positive trade announcement on China from President Trump.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trading higher building on Wednesday’s big reversal which was initially triggered by trade news but then better than expected cash trade added to the rally. Grains are also higher on hopes of an announced deal with China.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says it was a combination of short covering and technical buying heading into a long holiday weekend but the announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam also provided a spark.
Allison Thompson withThe Money Farm says some of recovery in corn is a technical bounce off of new contract lows in both old and new crop contracts on Tuesday. She thinks the corn market has also been getting ahead of itself and is too bearish on yield.
Corn-for-ethanol use totaled 449.4 million bu. in May.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says corn made new contract lows again as funds continue to sell with no major weather threat to the crop and improved crop ratings. But how low will prices go?
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures had a gap lower opening this morning on news from USDA of a phased re-opening of the border to Mexican cattle starting July 7.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says the June 30 reports have traditionally produced some fireworks, especially as they coincide with the end of the month and quarter which also triggers some portfolio re-balancing by the funds, but that didn’t happen Monday.
Trump’s approach involves threatening written notifications to trading partners outlining new tariff rates, a tactic aimed at forcing “deals” and punishing those not negotiating in good faith.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net says, the corn market is breathing a sigh of relief as some whisper numbers on acreage were substantially larger than the March intentions.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, chalks the recovery up to short covering heading into the weekend and position squaring ahead of Monday’s USDA reports.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says some in the market attributed the recovery to short covering but he thinks a some significant trade developments also played a role, as well as the upcoming USDA reports.
Historically, the corn market has been well over $5 with ending stocks this tight, says Darren Frye with Water Street Advisory, Inc. Will higher-than-expected corn inventory show up in USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report?
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are holding together despite lower cash trade, while grains are finally seeing a bounce in reaction to a China deal on rare earths.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says the funds continue to sell in the grain markets, and both old and new crop corn hit new contract lows Thursday before bouncing off those levels. So, how much more downside risk is there?
The International Grains Council (IGC) trimmed its forecast for 2025-26 global corn production.