Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Corn, soybeans and wheat all closed higher for the week in the face of heightened uncertainty. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says to him that kind of resilience is an underlying sign of a bull market.
Soybean market outlook broken down into 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Dan Basse with Ag Resource, says grain markets set back on profit taking after running into chart resistance and news Argentina is lowering its export taxes on grains.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are making record highs once again with cash in the North trading from $210 to $212 on Friday morning. Grains under pressure as Argentina lowers its export taxes on grains.
Craig Turner with StoneX says corn and soybeans rebounded Thursday and made fresh for the move highs on fund buying but South American weather and crop concerns are also supportive.
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities, says corn and soybeans saw profit taking after running into chart resistance on Wednesday but rebounded this morning adding back South America weather premium.
USDA announced several senior staff appointments.
Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says corn and soybeans saw a profit taking setback after making new highs for the move and hitting significant price objectives.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says the forward spreads have been bullish in corn since August indicating strong underlying demand.
The move follows President Donald Trump’s renewed claims that China has influence over the canal and his pledge to take control of the strategic waterway.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, says a combination of factors supported the rally in grains, which all scored new highs for the move.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says grain markets breathed a sigh of relief there are no immediate Chinese tariffs being imposed by the Trump Administration, that sent the U.S. dollar index sharply lower which is also supportive.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the strength in corn can pull the soybean markets and maybe even wheat higher for a handful of fundamental reasons.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading Group says corn closed above technical resistance of $4.80 despite the uncertainty of South American weather and tariffs under a new administration.
Weighing on Scott Irwin’s mind is whether U.S. grain growers need to get some downside price protection for 2025 crops.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are down a second day despite more record cash trade. However, the row crop futures are trying to recover on strong China economic news.
Updated production forecasts from the International Grains Council (IGC).
A breakdown of new, returning and departing members
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities says corn saw some fund buying on tight supplies and with help from concerns about Argentina weather. However, soybeans couldn’t follow, pulled down by meal.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says corn and soybeans are watching South American weather with hot dry conditions mainly in Argentina and Southern Brazil but some rain in the weekend forecast.
The Department of Energy and other federal agencies released a report on the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says corn and soybeans saw profit taking after stretching to new highs for the move as the markets were overbought.
Craig Turner, with StoneX, says corn and soybeans saw some early pressure on profit taking after hitting chart resistance and some farmer selling was also noted, both from U.S. and South American producers.
Cutler believes the upcoming challenge lies in overcoming entrenched trade disparities, including subsidies, state-owned enterprises and cross-border data flows.
The latest USDA American Farms and Ranches at a Glance report offers insights to how row crop growers are making a go of it financially in 2025.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says corn and soybeans continued to see gains from strong technical closes on Friday and extending the report rally.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live cattle futures are consolidating which is healthy. Meanwhile, corn and soybeans make new highs for the move still digesting USDA’s bullish report data and the shocking cuts in yield, production and ending stocks.
Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net, says South America is setting up for a record crop. “I think at this point Brazil will have a huge crop, 172 to 175 MMT, that’ll more than offset at what we lost here in the U.S.”
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says as of Friday’s report, USDA has dropped corn ending stocks nearly 1 billion bushels from their initial estimate during the February 2024 Ag Outlook Forum when the agency projected carryout at 2.532 billion bushels based on trend-line yield.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s administration aims for a “dollar-for-dollar” response.