Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
India approved a 101 billion rupee (US $1.2 billion) program to double edible oil production in the country within seven years, aiming to reduce dependence on costlier imports.
Brazil is projected to import its highest amount of diesel in two years, driven by a strong economy and increased fuel demand.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says grains are in transition right now as the funds have likely covered most of their short positions and are looking for signals for their next move.
CARB is maintaining its proposal from August to limit credit generation for certain crop-based biofuels, while expanding the scope of feedstocks affected.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says grains saw profit taking after running up into some chart resistance.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are well supported on higher cash. Grains seeing pressure as funds may be out of ammunition.
Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge, says funds have covered most of their record short position in grains and they are not likely to go long.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage, says historically, when corn and soybeans have a fall rally in August and September the markets top out in the October.
The U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office and USDA on Monday detailed strides made in expanding market access and boosting agricultural exports for U.S. producers.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says funds continue to cover shorts in the grain markets but there are some fundamentals also helping to support the rally.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures says corn continues to move higher on fund buying and tighter corn stocks from USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report. He thinks corn could eventually take out resistance on the charts and move higher.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says most of the strength in corn and wheat was due to end of quarter fund short covering.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net says the corn stocks were friendly under expectations at 1.76 billion bushels due to better feed demand and that data is supportive for the corn market.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains and livestock futures are trading mixed as traders position and take profits end of quarter and await the USDA report numbers out at 11 am.
Russia hiked the export duty for corn almost tenfold, marking the first sign of export curbs amid lower corn crop forecasts.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says corn and soybeans have rallied into chart resistance and will need three main fundamental factors to combine to keep prices moving higher.
November soybeans rallied 24 3/4 cents to $10.65 3/4 and surged 53 3/4 cents on the week. We share our outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says soybeans continue to see Brazil weather concerns and technical buying. When soybeans put in an early harvest low they tend to rally around 80 cents and have cleared that mark already. However, if Brazil stays dry the market could continue to price that in.
This labor dispute between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) could have far-reaching consequences if an agreement is not reached before the contract expires on Sept. 30.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures reversed with $2 higher cash in Southern feedlot areas. Grain markets ended lower as fund short covering was overrun by an increase in farmer selling.
Jerry Gulke wonders if the unintended consequences from failed biofuels policies are really unintended at all.
Winter wheat planting rates in Russia have fallen to an 11-year low, clouding the outlook for the 2025 harvest, Black Sea consultancy SovEcon said.
USDA revised its forecast for food prices in 2024, expecting a smaller increase than previously predicted.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says the market has been resilient as the funds are exiting shorts and taking profits end of quarter.
Grains started out mostly lower Wednesday but Darin Newsom with Barchart says they continue to see buying on the dips as funds are covering shorts and taking profits.
Brazil is making significant strides in the development and production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), positioning itself as a potential leader in this emerging market.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says it wasn’t the best close for the grains as the markets ran up into some chart resistance and are starting to look a little tired.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says funds are covering shorts and there is new technical buying as well as the markets have cleared some key chart resistance.
The study suggests renewable energy development can coexist with agricultural production in many cases. However, the researchers noted these projects have local socioeconomic effects on rural communities.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says a combination of factors drove soybeans higher including South American weather and China economic news. Corn and wheat followed. Cattle futures also made new highs for the move pushed by cash.