Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
AgDay TV Markets Now: Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Services, grains square ahead of WASDE, while cattle make new highs.
USDA will begin issuing final Emergency Relief Program (ERP) payments totaling approximately $306 million to eligible commodity and specialty crop producers who incurred losses due to natural disasters in 2020 and 2021.
A bipartisan border deal and foreign aid package is likely to fail in the Senate this week due to strong opposition from former President Trump and leading House Republicans.
Cattle futures recover after Monday’s chart damage, hogs consolidating for the 5th day. Soybeans build on Monday’s reversal, while corn is consolidating above support. Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, has more.
Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer says, “Soybeans saw mostly corrective buying as funds have built a short position and may be covering some of those contracts heading into the WASDE report on Thursday.”
Grains mixed as soybeans see corrective buying, wheat falls on dollar strength, corn caught in the middle. Funds take profits in cattle after hitting chart resistance, hogs consolidate. Brian Grete, ProFarmer, has more.
Former President Donald Trump hinted at imposing tariffs on Chinese goods exceeding 60% if re-elected, signaling a more aggressive stance towards China, which is the primary supplier of goods to the United States.
Grains Start Lower as Funds Add to Near Record Short Position: Cattle Extend Gains, Hogs Consolidate
Grains lower as funds continue to sell on Brazil harvest pressure & rain in Argentina. Cattle extend gains with higher cash ideas, hogs see profit taking & hedge pressure. Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures has details.
“The fund selling in grains isn’t just about China and Brazil, but also the carry in the markets. That is your theme,” says John Payne with Hedge Point Global Markets.
AgDay TV Markets Now: John Payne with Hedge Point Global Markets says soybeans and corn down for the week with soybeans back below $12.
The Biden administration is taking aim at grocery chains, suggesting they lower prices as their costs decline.
Shipping disruptions and higher freight costs are to blame for the basis collapse and the large carries in all the major grains, says Jerry Gulke.
A recap of this week’s price action plus market outlook broken down into 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
In early January, Illinois crop budgets were revised for 2024. Farmers are predicted to lose $135 to $160 per acre for corn and $20 to $107 per acre for soybeans. What’s a farmer to do when news is a punch in the gut?
Corn and soybeans continue to see fund selling, while funds are covering shorts in wheat. Outside markets respond to Jobs data. Cattle try to extend gains pushed by higher cash. Darin Newsom, Barchart, has more.
Corn-for-ethanol use totaled 481.7 million bu. during December, 3.3 million bu. above the average pre-report estimate.
Will cattle prices set new record highs in 2024? Kevin Good, CattleFax has their price outlook for fed cattle and feeders.
AgDay TV Markets Now: Kevin Good of CattleFax says record fed and feeder cattle prices are expected in 2024.
Cattle open higher in reaction to USDA’s confirmation of a small herd and no signs of rebuilding, Hogs see profit taking, grains back lower as funds return as sellers. Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, has more.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says USDA semi-annual cattle inventory report came as no surprise as it confirmed continued tight numbers and no herd rebuilding.
The FAIR Labels Act introduces specific definitions for “imitation meat” and “imitation poultry” for plant-based meat alternatives.
Grains down as funds turn back to selling with China demand concerns, weak Brazil bean basis, bearish outside markets. Cattle & hogs see end of month profit taking to start. Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, has more.
The rollback of restrictions on Venezuela’s oil industry is now at risk of expiring due to the recent Venezuelan court ruling and the arrest of several opposition members.
Any strength in the grain markets continues to be sold by the fund and algorithm traders according to DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing.
AgDay TV Markets Now: DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing says funds have a near record short position in the grain markets. It is only surpassed by May of 2019 which was in the middle of the China trade war.
Just this week, China’s largest real estate firm was told it must liquidate after trying to restructure for two years. Some experts say the country is teetering on a recession.
A study from Sandro Steinbach and Yasin Yildirim of North Dakota St. Univ. and Xiting Zhuang of the University of Connecticut exams the current challenges in global shipping and their direct impact on U.S. agriculture.
March soybeans closed below long-term chart support of $12.00, the first time soybeans have been under that level since June of 2023. Toay says that now opens the door for $11.76 to be tested.
AgDay TV Markets Now: Garrett Toay, Ag Trader Talk, says a “perfect storm” fueled the risk off selling in grain markets on Monday,
At least three cargoes of Brazilian soybeans were traded on Friday to a U.S. East Coast crusher.