Six months ago, no one saw this coming – abundant rainfall and then some for the 2025 growing season throughout much of the Corn Belt.
“It has been six years since we’ve seen a rainfall growing season map like what we have seen for 2025,” says Brad Rippey, USDA agricultural meteorologist.
“You have to go back to 2019, which was the year of too much rain. This year, if anything, it’s just about perfect,” says Rippey, who describes this summer as “almost like a Goldilocks growing season, to date.”
Three Months Of Moisture, And Counting
The percent of normal precipitation in the U.S. May through July shows above-average moisture levels across key corn and soybean production areas. Many states recorded at least 90% of their normal precipitation on the low end and upwards of 150% of their normal precipitation levels on the high end.
“You have a pretty consistent pattern everywhere east of the Rockies – look at all the greens and blues on the map – pockets of wetness. Certainly, just about everybody from the Plains eastward is looking at adequate to abundant moisture,” Rippey shared with Clinton Griffiths during the U.S. Farm Report.
The abundant moisture is helping fuel higher corn quality levels. USDA reports the corn crop nationally is at 73% in good too excellent condition – a 5% increase over this same time in 2024.
That rating is likely to stand going into the August 12 USDA-NASS Crop Production report, which the agency will conduct by satellite imagery.
“I know corn conditions and crop conditions in general, as reported by USDA-NASS, are not the end all in the conversation. It really matters when they go out into the fields and look – but look at that Iowa number of 87% good to excellent,” Rippey says.
He believes the current stats in combination with the results from USDA’s satellite imagery reviews will drive average yield estimate numbers for corn higher.
“What they’re going to see is an awfully good-looking corn crop,” Mark Schultz, chief market analyst for Northstar Commodity, told Michelle Rook during U.S. Farm Report.
“The question gets to be, do they bump it immediately – up to 184, 185, something like that? I would say it’s probably what we’re trying to trade into the market at the present time,” Schultz says. “That appears to be where most of the privates are going to into that category. You know, they’re not going to see anything terrible, that’s for sure.”
Corn Growth Heads Into The Home Stretch
Insights from USDA data provide some perspective on just how well this year’s corn crop is shaping up as the growing season turns the corner and heads for the finish line.
“You have to go all the way back to 2016 to see a higher crop condition index for corn this time in the growing season,” Rippey reports.
A map showing production outcomes for nearly the past decade illustrates how 2025 ranks near the top of the pack for corn crop conditions.
“The 2015, 16, 17, 18 seasons were all above-trend yields for corn, and the only year we have been above trend since then – and just barely – was 2021,” he says.
Moisture conditions the past few years have run to the dry side, a problem many mainstream meteorologists predicted would repeat this growing season.
“We found out the hard way last year that late summer dryness can take a toll on the crop, and we did come down off of some of that yield potential,” Rippey recalls.
The two key questions now are how will the 2025 corn crop finish out the growing season, and what will Mother Nature do between now and harvest?
According to the National Weather Service, farmers in the Eastern Corn Belt will potentially see more moisture. There are also indications below-normal rainfall and drier conditions will take root in parts of the western Corn Belt in the weeks ahead, starting sometime this month.
“But if that happens beyond the month of August, there is not going to be a significant impact on corn or soybeans,” Rippey predicts. “All indications are for bumper crops for just about everywhere in the country, except Montana and points West.”
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