Last summer, sentiments across the Texas Panhandle were sinking. From gin operators to cotton farmers, the drought was drowning out any optimism area farmers had left. Nearly a year later, the story is dramatically different, with rains impacting the ability for farmers to plant all their intended cotton acres.
On Friday, USDA released its June Acreage report, estimating another cut to cotton acres. USDA says farmers planted 11.1 million acres of cotton, a reduction from the 11.3 million reported in USDA’s 2023 Prospective Plantings report. It’s also down a whopping 19% from last year’s final planted acreage estimate.
Texas is a major piece of the cotton production picture. It accounts for 42% of total U.S. cotton production, and the majority of that is grown around Lubbock, an area known as the largest cotton patch in the U.S. USDA estimates Texas farmers planted 6.1 million acres this year, which is nearly 1.7 million acres less than last year.
It wasn’t just lower cotton prices impacting growers decisions, but also the weather.
Kody Bessent is the CEO of Plains Cotton Growers (PCG), representing cotton farmers across 42 counties in the Texas High Plains. He calls the weather changes pretty drastic and a change that happened pretty quick, too.
“We were still in a pretty severe drought situation, and certainly have not gotten out of that, but fortunately, as we’ve gotten into more of the aggressive planting time for our area, which is typically about the first part of May is when everybody really kind of starts getting going, we started to get rains,” Bessent says.
Bessent says farms across much of his area received a deluge of rainfall right at planting, and while the moisture was needed and welcomed, the sudden switch created new challenges for areas hit with the rush of rainfall. Farmers were unable to get the cotton crop planted this year.
“As you get through the Panhandle area, and all the way down through the western portion of the High Plains, their planting deadline is May 31, so we’ve obviously surpassed that.”
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As you move south, that deadline was later, and more of the cotton crop was able to get planted this year. Yet, when you look at the area as a whole, which is considered the largest cotton patch in the U.S., farmers were forced to switch from cotton to other crops.
“What that kind of means from a logistics standpoint, from acres, we’re going to see a pretty sizable amount of reduction in acres from basically Plainview, Texas, and north, at least from a cotton perspective,” he says.
According to PCG, that area historically plants 3.5 to 3.7 million acres.
“We’re probably going to be at about 3.2 to 3.5 million acres planted. When it’s all said and done, which is down from our average, and it certainly is way down from the level that we were at in 2022, which was historically some of the highest amount of planted acres we’ve seen, since the inception of grown cotton in this region,” Bessent says.
Just how many acres did farmers plant last year? 4.7 million, and most of the cotton acres that weren’t able to get planted this year, went to corn instead.
Crop-Killing Hail
Not only did the rainfall affect planting this year, it also affected what farmers have seen since.
“Lots of hail, there has been a lot with the storms that have come through,” says Todd Straley of Quarterway Cotton Growers in Plainview, Texas. “We had areas where 4" to 5" of rain fell over a couple of hours, and just completely flooded the fields.”
Storms this weekend were no joke. She gone pic.twitter.com/FiUdYySFLM
— Quentin Shieldknight (@QShieldknight) June 21, 2023
Last year when “U.S. Farm Report” talked to Straley, the drought was drowning out farmers’ hopes. Now, it’s the other extreme kicking in.
“When you get up north of Plainview where I am, up into the northern panhandle in Swisher County, and then even north of I-40, I think I had about 20% of my acres in that area that got planted,” Straley says. “And I don’t think I have an acre of that standing today.”
Bessent says fields in a fairly small area of the Panhandle took the brunt of the damage with field after field with bare stalks, stripped leaves and plants that looked burned.
“Several acres are being affected by that, but it’s really pocketed; it’s not a big splash like one would think that it is,” he says. “From a numbers standpoint, I’d say maybe a couple 100,000 total from our entire service area that’s been impacted by that.
Straley says Plainview and south, the planting and production picture is much better for cotton this year.
“We had roughly 60% of our intended acres, what actually got planted of that 60%, roughly 20% of that has been lost to hail,” Straley says. “So most is still standing underwater, even today, or the plants just got sick and died. So, that would take me to where roughly just a little under 50% of my intended acres are actually standing today.”
Mixed Outlook on Acres
Just launched this week, the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked leading economists to give their projection on acreage. It’s a joint effort between the University of Missouri and Farm Journal.
The survey showed economists think with the weather challenges in areas such as Texas, cotton farmers actually planted 11.24 million acres, with the maximum response of 11.9 million and 10.95 million on the low end.
The responses about crop yields produced more variation. According to respondents in June, economists project cotton production across the U.S. to reach 855.18 lb. versus 841 lb. in the latest USDA report.
Other production estimates in the Monthly Monitor include:
- Corn: 178.68 bu. per acre versus 181.5 bu. per acre (USDA’s current estimate)
- Soybeans: 51.06 bu. per acre versus 52 bu. per acre
- Wheat: 44.47 bu. per acre versus 44.9 bu. per acre
- Sorghum: 68.17 bu. per acre versus 69.2 bu. per acre
“I think when you look at both corn and soybean acres, there wasn’t a lot of deviation from the Prospective Plantings report USDA came out with a few months ago, so we didn’t see a big change there,” says Scott Brown, a University of Missouri economist who helps author the survey. “On the yield side, there are certainly some differences. The average yield estimate, on the corn side from the survey was a little more than 178 bu. per acre, with a downside of 175 bu. Likewise on soybeans, that came in at about 51 bu. per acre. Both corn and soybeans are below where USDA currently sees yields. I will say those are going to change quickly as we look at weather and what’s occurred since the survey would have gone out roughly a week ago now.”
Crop Production Outlook for Texas Cotton
The crop might be half of what was expected in the southern panhandle and west Texas, according to Straley, but it is still better than last year’s nightmare for them.
“Honestly, the stuff that got planted and is still standing today looks awesome, and my personal crop looks really, really good,” Straley says. “A lot of my dry land has three and four foot profile underneath it with better moisture than we have seen in a long, long time.
Just look at USDA’s latest look sub soil moisture in this week’s crop progress report. Thirty percent of Texas’ subsoil moisture is considered short to very short. That compares to 72% on April 2, which was USDA’s first crop progress report of the year.
Currently, USDA says one-third of the cotton in Texas is rated good to excellent, but the next test for production is the extreme heat. The omega block is dominating the U.S. and bringing a heat wave in Texas.
“Our growing conditions seem to change day by day,” Peter Dotray, Texas Tech University Weed Scientist in Lubbock, told AgFax. “In early spring it was extremely dry. Then we entered a wet, cool pattern in May and early June. There was also wind and hail, and now we’re back in a dry pattern with temperatures in the high 90s and 100s.”
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