For a summer that many meteorologists predicted would be characterized by dryness over much of the Midwest, that scenario has not materialized for the most part in corn-soybean growing areas.
The U.S. Drought Monitor released August 21 reports only 5% of corn and 9% of soybean acres are experiencing some level of drought currently.
Just last week Pro Farmer released estimates from its annual Crop Tour for both crops, predicting 182.7 bu. per acre average for corn and a 53 bu. per acre projection for soybeans.
Furthermore, temperatures across much of the Midwest for the week ahead are expected to drop into a cooler-than-usual range for late August, according to the NOAA.
But not all crops are in a garden spot this summer. Some are in double digit drought conditions. That includes 52% of barley, 22% of cotton, 49% of rice, 32% of sugarbeet and 31% of wheat acres.
Areas Where Dry Conditions Are Settling In
Meteorologist Jack Van Meter called out parts of the rice-growing region on Monday where dry conditions have increased in recent weeks.
“The big dis-improvement in the country, if you will, is down in the Mississippi River Valley,” he reported on AgDay TV. “We’re talking over by Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi. We can see moderate drought starting to spread throughout [that area].”
USDA data shows Arkansas ranks first among rice-producing states, accounting for more than 40 percent of the country’s rice production.
One of the concerns Van Meter says he is watching is what the lack of rainfall in those states will mean to water levels on the Mississippi River.
“If water levels drop, that will mean it’s harder for shipping to get through and start to transport goods out of the country and, actually, into the country for that matter, as well,” he adds.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reports it has been performing maintenance dredging throughout August to keep navigation channels open on the upper Mississippi. Navigation on the lower Mississippi continues to be affected by persistently low water levels, despite recent rainfall.
Rain In The Forecast This Week
Van Meter says a good slug of moisture will come in from the Rocky Mountains this week and across Oklahoma. That rain pattern will then move lower into the Southeast.
This week's precip forecast by @NOAA's @NWSWPC.
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@NOAADrought) August 25, 2025
Large parts of the West finally see needed monsoon precip. The S. Plains into the Lower Miss River Basin are expected to see inches of rain. FL too.
Little to no rain for the Midwest (except MO) and Mid-Atlantic. #drought @NWS pic.twitter.com/2gt1vrEsjF
“We’re going to be watching the Southeast for some impressive rainfall over by northern Florida and also by Georgia and South Carolina,” he says. “We could be seeing some impressive moisture moving in from the Gulf – obviously, something we’ll be keeping a rather close eye on.”
As the end of August plays out, Van Meter says it appears a dry pattern will set up for the Great Lakes area in the Midwest, just as the country heads into Labor Day weekend and the final, unofficial weekend of summer.
Parts of the western U.S., where farmers are dealing with severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought this summer, are expected to see rain by the end of the week.
“We are going to be seeing some abnormally wet conditions, or at least wetter than normal conditions to end the month, out there in Oklahoma. That is actually going to continue through much of the Rocky Mountains and head over to the West Coast,” he says.
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