Farmers have much to consider weather-wise as they head out to plant this year, with drought covering more than half the country.
“This is the highest us drought coverage in more than seven years going back to September 2013,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist.
Recent rains helped eat away at the drought in some areas, but as dryness covers a large swatch of the U.S., there is concern it will continue.
“Drought begets drought, and it’s hard to get out of the drought without getting some big storm systems in there,” says Mike Hoffman, AgDay meteorologist. “It’s possible we get a couple over the next couple of weeks. But overall, I’m afraid that area probably stays dry and that starts the heat and the heat expands. So, in April, I’m expecting that heat all the way up into parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio valley, especially the second half of April, WITH below normal still in the Pacific Northwest.”
“Those areas are going to be dealing with the likelihood of soil moisture shortages as we enter the 2020 one growing season,” adds Rippey. “However, the same dryness that could lead to problems later in the season are likely to contribute to a very rapid planting progress as we enter the spring months.”
“Every indication that I’ve got suggests that this won’t be a spring where we struggle to get some early season heat,” says Eric Snodgrass, Principal Atmospheric Scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions. “I think that the there’s better chances of us having decent return of some of moisture and also decent return of some warmer conditions.”
The agricultural forecasters say much of the forecast hinges on La Nina and whether the La Nina weather pattern remaining in the picture.
“It may actually get a little stronger as we head through the spring and into summer,” says Hoffman.
Ocean temperatures also play a big part in it all.
“Do I think that this year, a year we could have risk of another flash drought situation in parts of the western corn belt? I absolutely do,” says Snodgrass. “We’ve got drought in place now. The ocean temperatures are kind of advertising that. And it just depends on how quickly the heat retreats to the west. Honestly, I hope I’m wrong about all of it. I hope the jet stream dips south, goes fast and everybody gets rain. I mean, that would be a great summer.”
However, Snodgrass says he can also paint a scenario where portions of the Corn Belt get those “million-dollar rains.”
“Now, you dial up a perfect season for the Midwest, go ahead, bring on the heat in June, bring it on, dry out the soil in June if you return the rains in July and august, that’s huge yield potential because you stressed the crop a little early and then you give it what it needs late and it’ll just shoot through the roof,” says Snodgrass. “I think some folks this year are going to get just that with some timely thunderstorms.”
Adding to the issues in the West and Northern Plains is the fact there is very poor snowpack. The soil now remains extreme dry as farmers head into planting.
“That’s the hard part,” says Hoffman. “Unless we can get this drought cut down, I’m afraid we’re going to be below normal at least over the next 90 days for most of those drought areas: New Mexico, High Plains, eastern portions of the Rockies. Now, obviously, they’ve had some heavy snow a week ago in the central Rockies, which will help that situation.”
While in others parts of the country the story is too much moisture, which could lead to planting delays.
“Areas that are most vulnerable to additional flooding would include the Ohio Valley extending into some of the southern production areas for corn and soybeans, where we could see some acreage not able to be planted due to low land flooding and wetness,” says Rippey.
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