As harvest rolls across Minnesota, farmers are seeing strong yields in both corn and soybeans. But those big harvests come with an old problem — low prices and limited storage. During a recent University of Minnesota U.S. Farm Report College Roadshow stop in Minneapolis, experts Ed Usset, grain marketing specialist, and Pauline Van Nurden, Extension economist with the university’s Center for Farm Financial Management, break down what this means for farm profitability heading into 2025.
Soybean Storage Challenges — and the Corn Problem Coming Next
The conversation began with a topic dominating coffee shops and grain elevators across the Midwest: soybean storage. Reports earlier in the season hinted at a “soybean pileup,” with the governor even joking farmers might have to start putting soybeans in their garages.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz warned trade war-related tariffs and a record harvest meant “there’s going to be soybeans in garages, on the streets, wherever we can put them because there’s nowhere to go”. He specifically blamed President Donald Trump’s trade policies for creating “a man-made farm crisis” that has financially harmed Minnesota farmers.
However, Usset says farmers did find room for the crop.
“Well, I’m kind of surprised,” Usset says. “A couple of weeks ago, I really was concerned that we wouldn’t find a home for all the soybeans. But I’m talking to people in the country — they found a place for them. They’re in storage. They’re holding out.”
While the majority of Minnesota farmers have found a home for their soybeans this fall, futures prices are about the same as this point last year, however, it’s cash prices in the upper Midwest that are suffering.
“Prices are not good. Probably around $9.25 a bushel in much of southern Minnesota,” he explains. “But we found room for the soybeans. The problem, I think, is going to be in the next couple of weeks because a lot of space was dedicated to soybeans. Where does the corn go? We’re gonna have corn piles.”
Record Yields Add to the Surplus
Despite the logistical headaches, Minnesota farmers are seeing some of their best yields in years.
“I think we’re seeing good yields in soybeans,” Usset says. “There’s a good chance in Minnesota we’ll set a state record for average soybean yields. Not by a lot — you know, 52 bushels [per acre] is our record. I like to think we have a shot at 53 for a state average.”
Corn yields are also impressive.
“We have an outside shot to top 200 bushels an acre for the state,” Usset adds.
Those high yields, however, come at a time when input costs remain elevated and prices have failed to rebound.
A Difficult Year for Farm Income
According to Van Nurden, Minnesota farmers are still feeling the financial strain from last year— the lowest farm income in two decades.
“Unfortunately for crop farmers, it looks like more of the same,” she says. “Low prices, even with the better yields, but input costs are up.”
This situation isn’t new for Minnesota farmers. Even though China has backed off from buying U.S. soybeans, farmers also faced low-to-negative farm incomes last year. According to University of Minnesota analysis, Minnesota farm incomes declined again in 2024, falling to the lowest level this century.
In the data from the University of Minnesota and Minnesota State, it showed the median net farm income for Minnesota farms dropped to $21,964 in 2024, marking the lowest level this century. The drop was due to falling crop prices, coupled with below-trendline crop yields.
Van Nurden notes some relief came at the end of the year from the ECAP payments that had been issued.
“That payment was helpful — it provided some cash. But we actually included that income in last year’s numbers on the balance sheet as an accounts receivable,” she explains. “So it looks to be another challenging year for crop producers, with losses per acre on corn and soybean production.”
Payments Help, But “They’re Just a Band-Aid”
The conversation turned to the ongoing debate over government support payments for farmers, especially as uncertainty continues around trade policy and federal budgets.
“Something’s needed,” Van Nurden says. “I know farmers would rather be able to sell their crop at a profitable price and not receive payments, of course. Payments are a band-aid. Hopefully we can find new solutions to help replace markets, find new markets, all of that. But payments would be helpful at this challenging time.”
Trade Tensions Still Haunting Soybean Markets
For soybean growers, the trade relationship with China continues to cast a long shadow. Reports this week suggest China is intentionally avoiding purchases of U.S. soybeans — an echo of the trade war that hit markets hard in 2018 and 2019.
When asked whether that business might be lost for good, Usset says that’s a tough question.
“We had a trade war in 2018, 2019. We got by it, got a change in administration, and we got the sales back. I guess if I want to be hopeful, we can hope it comes back again,” Usset says.
Cutting Costs — One Small Step at a Time
Looking ahead to 2026, both experts agree managing costs will be critical as input prices continue to rise. Van Nurden says farmers are focusing on the small things.
“It’s probably little things across the board — trying to make smart decisions, manage the inputs where they can,” she says. “I don’t know that it’s going to be one place. I think it’s going to be lots of little places and just trying to manage and be very intentional about inputs and deferring repairs at times, potentially, and new investments.”
But she cautiones cost-cutting comes with long-term consequences.
“That has ramifications as well,” she says. “So it’s a balance.”
Market Opportunities — and a Ray of Hope
Even in a tough price environment, Usset says there are opportunities for farmers willing to look ahead.
“Look at the big carries in the market,” he advises. “Today’s price is really terrible — pretty much as low as it’s been in the last year. But in the corn market, for example, if you looked for delivery in April or May, you’ve got a 35¢ to 40¢ premium. You’ve got a 50¢ premium to hang onto your soybeans out into the spring.”
He says similar opportunities exist for wheat.
“No one wants to talk about spring wheat,” Usset says. “But if you’ll hold out to January, you can get a 50¢ premium for wheat — 50¢ for three months. That’s how big the carry is.”
Building Support and Planning Ahead
As the year winds down, Van Nurden encourages farmers to lean on their support systems.
“Take a look and push the pencil to your finances, talk to your lender, build that support,” she says. “There’s great collaboration between the university and the state of Minnesota with some of those programs, but there are resources out there to help. Always seek out the tools or the individuals that can help you.”
In the face of strong yields but shaky profitability, Minnesota farmers continue to show resilience and resourcefulness. As Usset put it, “It might not solve all the problems — but it’s a lot better than today’s price.”
