U.S. soybean exports now face a 114.73% tariff into China, up from 60%, as the tit for tat continues between the two countries. Even as the trade war heats up, the reality is U.S. farmers aren’t shipping as many soybeans to China as they did in 2018, yet China remains the top destination.
How Did We Get Here?
Just last week, President Donald Trump headlined what he called “Liberation Day” by announcing tariffs on more than 180 countries. That included a 34% tariff on all Chinese goods. In response, China imposed 34% tariffs on U.S. goods two days later. With tariffs already in place, that brought the total tariff rate to 60%.
After China retaliated with its own tariffs, the U.S. said on Tuesday that 104% duties on imports from China would take effect shortly after midnight. Then, on Tuesday, China fired back with an additional 50% tariff on U.S. goods.
“What we are understanding is that the new 50% stacks on top of the last 34% and the previous 10%. After you add the “regular” VAT and standard duty rate, the updated effective rate for soybeans is 114.73%,” American Soybean Association (ASA) told Farm Journal on Wednesday, shortly after China made their own tariff announcement.
By midday Wednesday, President Trump hit back at China again. He announced a 90-day “pause” on his tariff regime for all countries except China and lowered the tariff level to a universal 10%. When it comes to China, Trump has increased tariffs to 125%.
Exports to China Were Already Down Before Trade War
As the market watches the tariff spat unfold, U.S. exports to China are already at a multiyear low. While China is still the top export market for U.S. soybeans, it’s not at the level it was prior to the 2018 trade war.
“While it was not unexpected, the resulting cloud of concern following the administration’s tariff announcement is not without fallout — in the form of continued market uncertainty, the threat of lost business to existing soy markets due to potential tariff retaliation, price increases on inputs and more,” ASA said in a statement earlier this week. “The announcement of 10% baseline tariffs on all countries and additional, individualized tariff rates on approximately 60 countries impacts all of U.S. soy’s top 10 export markets. This includes No. 1 export market China.”
China Has Been Stockpiling Soybeans
Based on analysis by Terrain, China’s economic struggles and years of stockpiling have reduced demand for U.S. soybeans. Imports in 2024/25 were down 3% to 4 billion bushels. According to Terrain, it will be hard to reverse course on this trend.
“A renewed trade deal would offer false hope. Brazil has been busy feeding China soybeans (supplying nearly three times as much as the U.S. in 2022/23),” stated analysis by Terrain. “China met only 60% of its prior commitment in the Phase One agreement in 2020/21, is now aligned with Brazil and has been for years, and has stagnant demand.”
University of Missouri Extension agricultural economist Ben Brown also ran the numbers to show how the U.S. market share for soybean exports to China has dropped.
Share of U.S. soybean exports going to China first six months of marketing year:
- 2015/17 average: 68%
- 2022/24 average: 62%
Share of outstanding U.S. soybean export sales:
- 2015/17: 28%
- 2022/24: 23%
The share of outstanding sales by China as the total, as of March 27, 2025, sits at 11.4%.
While the percentage differences might look small, according to Brown, it adds up.
“Every percent decline is 18.2 million bushels, or 0.4% of annual production, Brown adds.
Even though China’s appetite for U.S. ag products has waned, commodity prices have rebounded some this week. But after the initial tariff news hit last week, soybean prices sunk multiple days in a row.
According to AgMarket.net’s Matt Bennett, exports are at risk. When Brazil’s harvest hits the market that’s what China will be buying. Even then, outstanding sales of soybeans could take a hit.
“We have some unshipped sales right now for soybeans,” Bennett says. “They haven’t been buying any corn. Bottom line: They’re buying most of their beans off of Brazil and will be from this point forward. That would be one of my concerns, though, is you’ve got a balance sheet right now of 380 million bushels for soybeans. What if we lose 15 or 20 million bushels because some of these sales turned into cancellations? There’s no doubt we could see some of that retaliation.”
Bennett says it’s also key to remember this isn’t a one-way street. The U.S. is a major destination for China’s exports, including consumer products.
“We have to remember we’re the biggest destination as far as where they’re shipping products,” Bennett says. “I mean, we are the world’s largest consumer. They’ve been doing good business with us, but just like we’ve seen with some of the other countries, there’s trade imbalances here that probably need to be addressed. The short-term pain, if you will, is hopefully going to be followed up by maybe some long-term benefit.”
The last trade war, Brazil proved to gain market share, growing an even bigger customer base in China.
“ASA strongly encourages the administration to swiftly negotiate and address tariff and non-tariff barriers for U.S. agriculture exports,” the group urged in a statement.
Other top targets include cotton, sorghum, beef, pork and seafood — each with more than $1 billion in exports to China last year.
Opportunity for Soybean Exports to Grow?
Despite what ASA calls the “doom and gloom of increasing tariffs across the globe,” the association says soybean farmers are hopeful the administration has a plan to quickly negotiate with impacted countries.
“We are hoping from obstacles can come opportunity and the administration will swiftly work with the affected countries to create new market access opportunities for U.S. soy and other U.S. products in these markets so these higher tariffs can be removed. That includes pursuing a Phase Two trade agreement with China,” says ASA President Caleb Ragland, who farms soy and other crops in Kentucky.
ASA says soybeans farmers still suffer from negative impacts of lost market share, reputational damage and expanded production in competitor countries stemming from China’s trade retaliation in 2018/19 before the Phase One agreement was reached.
ASA Pushes Trump Administration to Level the Playing Field
Another area ASA is pushing for is using the reciprocal tariffs announcement to level the playing field and create new market access. ASA says it supports the administration’s goal of achieving greater fairness in U.S. trading relationships.
“Its reciprocal tariff strategy holds great promise for achieving new market access for U.S. agricultural goods, but ASA strongly encourages the administration to avoid punitive tariffs without negotiations to address tariff and non-tariff barriers. Tit-for-tat trade wars are not beneficial, and U.S. agriculture cannot afford them. Soy farmers urge the administration to quickly pursue agreements with priority countries so as to open market opportunities for U.S. agriculture and minimize the potential for retaliation,” ASA said in a statement.
Your Next Read: Tariff Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities Ahead for Agriculture
