USDA pegged 51% of the U.S. crop at good to excellent earlier this week. That percentage is up 2% from last week and is nearly identical to what the USDA ratings were at this time last year.
Parts of the Central and Southern Plains have been seeing some timely and beneficial rains, contributing to the wheat quality. The largest producer of hard red winter wheat, Kansas, has also seen some recent moisture.
USDA currently rates winter wheat in Kansas at 47% good to excellent, which is a gain of six points in the last two weeks alone and well above the 34% rating at this same time in 2024.
Crop conditions could improve more next week with cool temperatures and recent moisture. But while rains were timely, coverage was spotty in the state, according to Aaron Harries, vice president of research and operations for Kansas Wheat.
“There are parts of the state that did not get the benefit of the rain. Southwest Kansas is really receiving some good rains, but there are isolated pockets in central Kansas and north-central and northwest Kansas that are still dry,” Harries says.
He adds that those are the larger production areas in Kansas, for some of those fields the moisture may have come too late.
“Because the wheat was so drought-stressed and short, those are a lot of acres that will have below-average yields,” he explains.
A Repeat Of 2024?
Scouts will determine how much the lack of widespread rain impacts overall yield and ratings during the Kansas Wheat Quality Council’s annual crop tour next week.
“I’m interested to see what the group’s prediction is. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s very similar to what it was last year,” Harries says. “We might be shooting towards an average crop. I think whether it is an above-average crop, with regard to the five-year rolling average, is probably a little bit too much to ask for at this point.”
He says another unknown yield impact is disease pressure, noting that farmers are seeing Triticum mosaic and wheat streak mosaic.
“That is a viral disease transmitted by an insect called the wheat curl mite,” Harries explains, regarding wheat streak mosaic. “We’re seeing the virus pretty widespread in central and western Kansas, and the severity in some cases is pretty high.”
The impact disease pressure could have on Kansas wheat yields might not be known until the combines roll at harvest, now only a few weeks away.
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