USDA’s record 16.7 billion bushel corn crop estimate in the August WASDE is raising concern among farmers and farm groups — including the National Corn Growers Association.
They’re questioning the accuracy of USDA’s yield and acreage projections and asking for demand solutions to blunt the threat to the livelihood of farmers already facing record-low prices.
Corn Acreage a Double Whammy
Corn profitability was already in the red before the August WASDE.
But the record 16.7 billion bushel corn crop and 2 million additional acres just added insult to injury for Tom Haag, who farms near Eden Valley, Minn.
“When they first had their intentions earlier in June, I thought we were pretty close to where we were. I don’t know where they come up with these extra acres or where they found them,” Haag says.
Illinois and Iowa acreage was unchanged, but between the June Acreage Report and August Farm Service Agency (FSA) certified acreage, states including Kansas, North and South Dakota had 1.2 million more acres.
Some could be silage, but these are fringe states.
Krista Swanson, chief economist with NCGA, says even with record yields, those states can’t lift the national yield average.
“The higher acres are, the less likely we have an extremely high yield because of those fringe acres. I think that certainly comes into play, as maybe challenging ‘Can a yield of this level be hit?’”
Validity in Question
The yield methodology for the August report is also in question since it doesn’t use field data.
Swanson says, “So, what happens when we start to getting into harvest is left to be seen. You could analyze, ‘Well, if a state like Iowa has exceedingly high yields, then you wouldn’t necessarily need that record’. But you come out around 190 if every state achieves their maximum yield of the past five years.”
And the record yield projected for the No. 2 corn producer, Illinois, is debatable with crop ratings at only 63% good-to-excellent — well below last year.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says that’s well below last year’s rating, and it has dropped 8% in the last few weeks.
“Right now, the good-to-excellent rating is suggesting an average Illinois crop, and of course USDA gave it a record at 221,” Beadle says.
USDA Lowers Average Corn Price
Swanson says as a result of the record supply, USDA lowered the national average corn price.
“USDA also reduced its projected market year average price for the 2025 crop from $4.20 down to $3.90. That would be the lowest market year average we’ve had since 2019.”
But cash prices are much lower in the country — pushing profitability further in the red for farmers like Haag.
Losing Money at This Price
“Our break-even at the farm is right around $4.25, and cash corn to where we haul today is $3.59,” Haag explains.
And with USDA’s cost of production on corn at $897 an acre, he isn’t the only farmer below break even.
Beadle says, “You know, at the 181-bushel level, we were going to need $4.95 on average for the average farmer to break even. If you add this 7.8 bushels an acre, you still need $4.75 to break even.”
Call to Action on Demand
The bleak outlook has NCGA issuing a call to action from Congress and the Trump administration, including year-round E15 — which could use an estimated 457 million bushels of corn.
“If we could get E15 — and also California to use E15 — that would burn up a lot more bushels,” Haag says. “A lot of states don’t have the infrastructure to burn E15, as their pumps are not set up. We need some adjustments there also from EPA to allow E15 to be used in your normal conditions like unleaded 87 is.”
Swanson says they’re also looking for demand in the export market.
"[We’re] also stressing the importance of continuing to work on some of these new trade frameworks and build international market access as well.”
Unfortunately, if help comes, it may not be in time to stop the bleeding at harvest time.
