Brazil, the world’s largest poultry exporter and main poultry meat importer into the European Union, is no longer allowed to ship poultry and meat products to the EU due to the recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
Brazil confirmed the country’s first HPAI outbreak on a commercial farm in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul on May 16.
The entire territory of Brazil has suspended its official status of being “free of highly pathogenic avian influenza.” The EU joins with bans from top buyer China, Reuters reported. According to a European Commission spokesperson, EU import conditions require that the country of export (Brazil) is free of HPAI.
Why do U.S. farmers need to pay attention?
There are two reasons for U.S. farmers to be watching the developments of the disease and its effect on the Brazilian poultry industry.
Dan Basse, AgResource Company, says Brazil poultry exports account for about 33% of the global poultry supply.
“A good portion of that goes to China,” Basse says. “The Chinese are out and already saying that they are going to be restricting Brazilian poultry but, we’ll see. The Chinese took last year about 570,000 tons of Brazilian product. I don’t know where they would replace it–but they’re not going to do it from the United States with the trade war.”
He says another reason to watch is the feed side of the Brazilian poultry flock.
“Those birds consume a lot of meal and a lot of corn, it’s like 17.6 million metric tons of Brazilian meal, and 42 to 43 million tons of corn,” Basse says. “So we’ve got to think about this not only from a export opportunity for US poultry, but from a demand concern of what the Brazilians will do in terms of feed consumption. They’ll become more aggressive in offering meal and corn to the world market if flocks down there do need to be depopulated and are starting over.”
What are teh next steps?
Restriction on poultry exports follows rules agreed on with each importing country, based on international health certificate requirements, the Agriculture and Livestock ministry told the Associated Press (AP). Depending on the type of the disease, some deals apply to the whole country while others involve limits on where products can come from — for example, a specific state, city or just the area of the outbreak.
Countries like Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the Philippines have already accepted this regional approach, AP reported.
Brazil exported more than 5 million tons of poultry meat in 2024. Reuters reported that approximately 4.4% headed to the EU. Of total EU poultry imports, Brazil is the main origin with a share of 32% last year, according to official EU data.
The U.S. bird flu outbreak and wider trade tensions with Washington have limited Chinese appetite for American poultry. China now blocks poultry from more than 40 U.S. states over HPAI, according to U.S. government data, Reuters reported.
If the HPAI outbreak spreads across Brazil, as it did in the U.S., officials and analysts said outlooks could get dimmer, Reuters reported. That scenario would raise U.S. hopes for China to ease restrictions on American poultry.
Under a Phase 1 trade agreement China signed with U.S. President Donald Trump during his first term in 2020, China is supposed to lift statewide bans on U.S. poultry 90 days after states eliminate bird flu from infected farms.
However, China has kept bans in place longer than it had agreed in that deal, according to the article.
Greg Tyler, CEO of the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council industry group, told Reuters he is hopeful China will move back to abiding by that regionalization agreement.
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