As the Trump Administration Shifts Strategy on Avian Flu, it’s a Complicated Issue in Need of a Long-Term Solution

The Trump administration is rolling out a new strategy to combat avian flu, moving away from mass culling of infected flocks of egg-laying chickens. But as Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told Farm Journal in an exclusive interview, the key to solving the issue is to find a solution that doesn’t just address the avian flu outbreak in the short-term. The plan also needs to find a solution that works long-term, as well.

USDA’s food price outlook report released Tuesday shows the sticker shock shoppers are seeing for egg prices. The report egg prices for 2025 now more double their previous forecast, now up 41.1% midpoint versus 20.3% last month.

Also on Monday, Rollins met with poultry farmers and industry leaders in Texas to address the ongoing avian flu crisis. She toured a Cal-Maine Foods facility in Bogata before hosting a roundtable in Mount Pleasant, where discussions focused on outbreak response and mitigation strategies. Rollins criticized the Biden administration’s handling of the issue, emphasizing the Trump administration’s commitment to supporting farmers and stabilizing egg prices. Following the roundtable, she spoke with local media about USDA’s efforts and the impact on Texas agriculture

That followed the Trump administration introducing a new plan last week, which was spearheaded by National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and Rollins. The plan prioritizes enhanced biosecurity measures and medication to control the spread of the virus in egg-laying flocks.

“Clearly, this is a massive issue for our poultry producers, especially our egg layers,” Rollins told AgriTalk’s Chip Flory, in an exclusive interview. “Ensuring that we have a plan, not just for the short-term to bring down egg prices, which the president is very focused on, but for the long-term. What are the best practices around the world? Why in America have we been hit so hard? Why did the last USDA, a couple of years ago, recognize it as a major issue but not many steps were taken?”

Just hours after being confirmed, Rollins’ first official meeting at the White House was on avian flu. She told Flory it’s her top priority right now, and she’s gathered a team from within USDA and the White House to focus on the issue.

“I’ve been talking to governors. I’ve been talking to the companies that are facing this. I’ve been talking to grocery. I mean, we’ve been talking to everyone, trying to come up with a big toolkit to be able to really approach this and hopefully figure out a way to, again, solve it for the long-term,” Rollins said.

Flory followed up by asking Rollins if vaccines will be one of the tools used by USDA.

“Vaccines are being discussed right now. I think that there is a lot of opinion on that on both sides. And we’re working through all of that right now,” Rollins told Flory.

Part of the Trump administration’s new strategy on avian flu released so far includes:

• Biosecurity and Medication: Improved containment protocols and medication aim to reduce reliance on widespread culling.
• Smart Perimeter Approach: Targeted containment methods will enhance efficiency in preventing outbreaks.
• Collaboration: Government scientists and global academic experts are contributing to the plan’s development.

How to Get More Eggs in the Short-Term
The National Chicken Council (NCC) is also petitioning the FDA to lift a regulation that prevents broiler industry eggs from entering the food supply, arguing the move could ease record-high egg prices caused by the bird flu outbreak.

The 2009 rule forces broiler producers to discard surplus hatching eggs instead of selling them to processors, despite government risk assessments affirming their safety. If granted, the request would allow nearly 400 million eggs annually to be used in processed foods like bread, pasta and mayonnaise, alleviating strain on table egg supplies.

NCC previously sought relief under the Biden administration in 2023 but was denied. Now, with egg prices soaring, the organization is urging swift action from the Trump administration.

USDA Reports Decline in Egg production, Signs of Recovery Ahead

USDA’s latest report highlights key trends in the poultry industry, including a 4% decline in U.S. egg production for January 2025. This drop is largely due to a 4% reduction in laying hens, driven by the ongoing avian influenza outbreak.

However, signs of recovery are emerging: egg-type chick hatching rose by 6%, and incubation numbers increased by 7%. Meanwhile, broiler production is growing, with a 3% rise in broiler chick hatching. USDA will release updated forecasts on March 11, offering a clearer picture of the industry’s trajectory.

More details:

• The number of layers fell to about 363 million in January, down 3.8% from a year ago.
• Egg production of 8.865 billion was down 4.2% and the lowest for the month since 2016 — when there was a previous major outbreak of bird flu.

(Bloomberg)

Denny’s became the latest breakfast chain to announce an egg surcharge. Earlier this month, Waffle House introduced a temporary 50-cent surcharge per egg.

Major retailers, including Costco and Trader Joe’s, have had to act as well by imposing limits on how many eggs one customer can buy. According to USDA, the avian flu has killed more than 140 million egg-laying birds in the country since 2022. At least 18.9 million birds have been culled in the past 30 days alone.

Egg Prices and Market Conditions
Conventional table eggs jumped 36 cents a dozen nationally last week, on average.

Negotiated wholesale prices for graded loose eggs are firm to moving higher with a higher undertone. Demand for retail is moderate to good, while food service interest is lower. Offerings are very light, with little chance of improvement due to ongoing highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) impacts on productive flocks.

Price Trends

• National trading: White large shell eggs increased $0.33 to $8.07 per dozen
• New York market: Large cartoned shell eggs rose $0.24 to $8.47 per dozen
• Midwest region: Large white shell eggs increased $0.28 to $8.09 per dozen
• California benchmark: Large shell eggs rose $0.05 to $9.22 per dozen

Supply and Demand
Shell egg demand has increased over the past week, with marketers struggling to cover needs due to reduced supplies from HPAI outbreaks. Spot market bids routinely outpace offers, often by a factor of ten, with prices setting daily records. Shell egg shortages are now impacting most major markets.

Inventory and Production

• Overall shell egg inventory declined 2%
• Large class shell eggs inventory is down just over 1%
• Cage-free egg stocks decreased 3.5%
• Breaking stock inventory gained 2%
• Total estimated table egg production unchanged from last week and last year

Breaking and Processing
Breaking schedules are generally reduced, running 3% below year-ago levels. The volume of eggs processed last week decreased just under 1%. Production of whole eggs was up nearly 3%, while egg components (whites and yolks) continue to decline.

Frozen Egg Storage
December monthly volume of frozen eggs in storage declined 7% from November, 38% below the December 2023 level. This is the lowest level of egg products stocks recorded in the last 10 years.

NCC’s Petition to Bring More Eggs Into the Market

As noted above, the National Chicken Council is also petitioning the FDA to lift a regulation preventing broiler industry eggs from entering the food supply.

· Consumer safety vs. potential economic benefits: The FDA determined that allowing the use of surplus broiler eggs would not maintain the same level of public health protection as the current egg safety rule. The agency prioritizes consumer safety over potential economic benefits.

· Refrigeration requirements: The 2009 rule requires all eggs entering the food supply to be kept at 45°F within 36 hours of being laid. Broiler eggs are typically stored at 65°F, which is incompatible with this requirement.

· Different risk profiles: While the NCC argues that pasteurized surplus broiler eggs present a different risk profile than raw table eggs, the FDA has not been convinced by this argument.

· Regulatory jurisdiction: The FDA has authority over shell eggs under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, while USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) regulates egg products. This division of responsibilities complicates the decision-making process.

· Previous rejections: The FDA has consistently denied similar petitions in the past, including one in June 2023. This suggests a long-standing policy position that is unlikely to change without significant new evidence or circumstances.

What Could Happen Moving Forward

USDA officials and analysts clearly understand the issue, but they are dealing with a topic that involves short- and long-term issues, FDA and White House officials. Also, throw in politics, with Democrats asking almost daily what the White House is doing about high egg prices.

A whole-of-government approach is evident on this issue via the Trump administration. That was not the approach on this topic during the Biden administration, even though various steps were taken by then USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack. They just came too late or were not aggressive enough, sources conclude.

Industry contacts say the failure of former President Biden’s team to deal with the spread of HPAI means both a short- and long-term approach is now needed. There is only so much that can be done in the short run to lower egg prices. That topic should have been dealt with via more effective HPAI policy a few years ago, contacts advise. It was not.

The push is on for a multi-focus, all-inclusive approach including:

• An increased focus on biosecurity, but with funding to help the industry accomplish that because of indemnity and other issues.
• Finding different modes of administering medications, such as via water, feed and aerosols. But those methods are not yet available. Thus the need for expanded research funding on this topic.
• Coming up with a trade strategy that could involve regionalization (trading with states outside impacted areas). But that has to be negotiated with trading partners, and that takes time. Also, industry officials are very hesitant about trade issues. A regionalization approach could be taken, but only after more vaccines are available. However, there are already regionalization agreements in place with some countries on bird flu. One question is what would any vaccination effort do to those regionalization agreements?
• Increasing imports of eggs, but this could be limited and presents some quality issues and food safety issues (testing, etc.). But egg exporting countries are increasingly looking at the U.S. market due to prices and wanting to boost exports.
• Any discussion of an embargo on U.S. egg exports should be moot. Reason: embargoes do not work. Example: The Carter grain embargo in 1980 against the then Soviet Union.

Vaccines:
USDA recently granted Zoetis a conditional USDA approval for an avian flu vaccine. Major poultry and dairy organizations back vaccine use to control the virus.

However, several problems exist regarding vaccines, including the trade angle previously discussed, and the fact that their effectiveness timeline wears off. Also, HPAI is multifaceted with different mutations causing vaccine-related issues.

As for FDA, if the agency is convinced somehow to temper its current safety rule, concerns still exist regarding increased threats of salmonella.

If the NCC petition would be approved in some way, increased testing for salmonella is just one requirement. Any cost-benefit analysis is difficult at best to do on this topic. Of note: It will be curious to see what HHS Secretary JFK Jr. says about this and other HPAI issues, especially the use of vaccines.

Risks:
If a change in the major depopulation strategy is implemented, the concern is that if it does not work, an explosive increase in HPAI cases could follow.

Upshot:
Limited avenues are available in the short run regarding bringing down egg prices, and containing HPAI. As previously mentioned, the reason for that in part is this topic was not taken as seriously as it should have been during the Biden administration because no such all-of-government approach was taken.

A likely game plan will or should be to lay the groundwork to deal with HPAI in the long run so it does not surface again years from now. But this will take time to unfold. Regarding egg prices, any effort to stop U.S. egg exports will likely be rejected. That means increase supply via imports and eventually more U.S. egg production, and/or reduced demand via higher prices.