AgDay Daily Recap -December 6, 2016

TODAY ON AGDAY
DECEMBER 6, 2016

HEADLINES
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - WHERE ARE CATTLE PRICES HEADED IN 2017 AFTER MORE THAN A YEAR OF BOUNCING ACROSS THE BOARD. IN AGRIBUSINESS...DIVING INTO DAIRY MARKETS DON’T GET TO EXCITED BECAUSE WE ARE OVER SUPPLIED WITH MILK PRODUCTION RIGHT NOW USDA EXPECTS DAIRY EXPORTS TO BE HIGHER IN THE NEW YEAR. AND THESE KIDS ARE MAKING SMARTER CHOICES IN THE BREAKFAST LINE AT SCHOOL. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO.

GREENER PASTURES FOR CATTLE
GOOD MORNING I’M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. IT’S BEEN A VOLATILE COUPLE YEARS FOR CATTLE MARKETS AS FED CATTLE PRICES PLUMMET MORE THAN 40 PERCENT OFF OF 2014 HIGHS. CATTLEFAX CEO RANDY BLACH JUST SPOKE AT THE KANSAS LIVESTOCK CONVENTION ABOUT CATTLE MARKETS. HE SAYS CATTLE PRODUCERS HAVE RECENTLY SEEN HIGHER PRICES BUT THE RALLY MAY NOT LAST MUCH LONGER. BLACK SAYS -- QUOTE “THIS IS NOT ABOUT CATTLE, BUT MORE PART OF A GLOBAL SLOWDOWN,” ADDING, “COMMODITY CYCLES ARE A GOOD REMINDER OF HOW QUICKLY THINGS CAN CHANGE.” NO WHERE HAS THE INDUSTRY BEEN HIT HARDER THAN AT THE FEEDLOT. FEEDYARD MARGINS SAW LOSSES OF 500 DOLLARS PER HEAD LAST YEAR. AS TYNE MORGAN TELLS US, WHILE THE SITUATION HAS IMPROVED, SOME ANALYSTS SAY LOOKING LONGER-TERM, IT’S NOT GREENER PASTURES JUST YET. IT’S BEEN TOUGH AS HELL. BOB FOOTE HAS BEEN IN THE CATTLE FEEDING BUSINESS MOST OF HIS LIFE. THE VOLATILITY IS NOTHING NEW TO FOOTE, BUT 2016 HAS BEEN ONE OF HIS MOST CHALLENGING YEARS YET. THREE YEARS AGO WAS PROBABLY THE BEST YEAR WE EVER HAD. AND WE WENT DOWN SINCE THEN> THE PRICE PEAK MAY BE IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR, AS THE WET BLANKET TODAY IS AN OVERSUPPLY OF PROTEIN. THE STORY IS PRETTY WELL KNOWN. THERE’S JUST TOO MUCH MEAT OUT THERE. FOLLOWING 4 TO 5 PERCENT INCREASE IN PORDUDCTION THIS YEAR, WE’RE STILL GOING TO BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER 2, 2.5, 3 PERCENT INCREASE IN BEEF PRODUCTION IN 2017. NOW THAT WE’RE ENTERING THE FINAL DAYS OF 2016, THINGS ARE LOOKING UP. WE ACTUALLY THINK THAT CATTLE FEEDERS TODAY THAT HAVE A SUBSTANCIALLY IMPROVED PROFIT OPPORTUNITY IN 2017 OVER WHAT’S TRANSPIREDIN 2016. THE WEEKLY STERLING PROFIT TRACKER HAS BEEN MOSTLY RED THIS YEAR, BUT THE LATEST REPORT FOR THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 25TH SHOWING GREEN, WITH 52 DOLLAR PER HEAD GAINS. THAT’S QUITE THE REVESAL FROM THE 51 DOLLAR PER HEAD LOSSES FEEDYARDS SAW LAST MONTH, AND THE STARTLING 486 DOLLAR LOSSES THAT CUT SO DEEP ONE YEAR AGO. IT’S RECORD CARCASS WEIGHTS THAT PUSHED FEEDER PRICES SO FAR DOWN IN 2015. CLOSE SAYS WHILE AVERAGE CARCASS WEIGHTS ARE BELOW YEAR AGO LEVELS, IT’S STILL ABOVE THE 5 YEAR AVERAGE. ONE THING PRODUCERS HAVE TO DO TO HELP REDUCE THAT ESCALATION IN BEEF TONNAGE, IS SIMPLY START SELLING CATTLE AT LIGHTER WEIGHTS,BEYOND SUPPLY, CATTLE PRODUCERS KNOW THEY NEED MORE DEMAND AND THANKFULLY TIS THE SEASON FOR PEOPLE TO BUY MEAT. WE’RE STARTING TO SEE SOME REAL INTERSEST IN BUYERS IN MIDDLE MEATS GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY USAGE SEASON. THAT’S WHY ANALYSTS LIKE CLOSE AND BRUGLER THINK SHORT-TERM, WE’VE FOUND A FLOOR AFTER BEING HEAVILY OVERSOLD. THAT’S STILL NOT TO SAY WE’RE NOT GOING TO SEE SOME SWINGS IN PRICES IN 2017, BUT WE DO THINK WE’RE WORKING FROM A PRICE LEVEL TO PROVIDE MORE STABILITY IN A BETTER MAEKTING ENVIORNMENT THATN WHAT WE’VE SEEN THIS YEAR. WHILE THE BOTTOM MAY BE IN FOR NOW, LONG-TERM, THE PICTURE IS MUCH MORE BLEAK. I THINK LONG TERM THE CATTLE CYCLE SAYS WE’RE STILL EXPANDING CATTLE NUMBERS. YOU’LL PROBABLY SOMETIME BY 2018 GO DOWN TO 80 BUCKS. I THINK CATTLEMEN NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT. IF THE CYCLE CONTINUES, THERE’S MORE TO COME. BRUGLER SAYS THAT’S LARGELY DEPNDENT ON PORK AND POULTRY. IF THOSE SECTORS CUT BACK PRODUCTION, CATTLE MAY NOT DIP THAT LOW. BUT IT’S A STARTLING PROJECTION FOR WHICH PRODUCERS NEED TO PREPARE. YOU’VE GOT TO LOOK HARD AT YOUR OPERATION. SHOULD YOU BE EXPANDING OR SHOULD YOU BE CUTTING BACK? PARTICULARLY ON THE COW CALF SIDE OF THINGS. CLOSE IS HOPEFUL THE LARGE PRICE GAP BETWEEN LIVE CATTLE PRICES AND RETAIL BEEF PRICES THIS YEAR WILL TIGHTEN. SOME THING THAT WOULD HELP MORE THAN ANYTHIGN IS IF WE WOUDL FINALLY STAR TOT SEE AN EASING OF THE STICKY RETAIL BEEF PRICES, THE LOWER PRICES WILL ENCOURAGE MORE CONSUMER SPENDING MORE PURCHASES OF BEEF THAT WOULD BE A HUGE BENEFIT IN GETTING THIS TONNAGE CLEARED IN THE MARKET.WHILE THE OUTLOOK FOR 2017 IS BETTER, FOOTE IS TAKING IN IT IN STRIDE, HOPEFUL THE WORST IS BEHIND HIM. IT’S NOT GOING TO BE NO 2014 WHEN WE HAD A WINDBANGER WITH OUTSTANDING PROFITS BUT WE’RE GOING TO BE ALRIGHT.AND WITH THREE SONS PART OF THE FAMILY FEEDYARD BUSINESS, HE HAS SIMPLE ADVICE FOR YOUNG PRODUCERS STILL TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH. HANG ON. IT’LL GET BETTER. THANKS TYNE. BEFORE THE NOVEMBER RALLY, OCTOBER FED CATTLE SAW WEEKLY PRICES AVERAGE AS LOW AS 97-57. THAT WAS THE FIRST WEEKLY AVERAGE BELOW THE 100 DOLLAR MARK SINCE DECEMBER OF 2010.

NATURAL GAS SPIKE
IN THE HEART OF DRYING SEASON, NATURAL GAS PRICES HAVE JUMPED MORE THAN 34 PERCENT OVER THE PAST MONTH. THEY’RE NOW AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN TWO YEARS. MEANWHILE ON THE OIL FRONT, BRENT CRUDE CLIMBING ABOVE 55 DOLLARS PER BARREL ON MONDAY. THAT’S A 16TH MONTH HIGH.THE INCREASE DUE TO EXPECTED TIGHTENING SUPPLIES FOLLOWING OPEC’S DECISION TO CUT PRODUCTION. SINCE THE ANNOUNCEMENT BY OPEC BRENT CRUDE HAS SEEN IT’S BIGGEST PRICE JUMP IN NEARLY 8 YEARS.

CROP COMMENTS
“CROP COMMENTS IS POWERED BY RESICORE HERBICIDE FOR CORN, FROM DOW AGROSCIENCES.” LET’S GET YOUR FIRST LOOK AT FARM COUNTRY WEATHER. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS TODAY’S CROP COMMENTS. GOOD MORNING CLINTON. WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOPEFULLY LAST WEEK’S RAINS WILL HELP, BUT STATES LIKE GEORGIA AND ALABAMA HAVE A LONG ROAD AHEAD. LAST WEEK’S CROP PROGRESS REPORT SHOWS 92-PERCENT OF ALABAMA TOPSOIL AND 89-PERCENT OF SUBSOIL MOISTURE IS VERY SHORT. IN GEORGIA, 75-PERCENT OF TOPSOIL AND 68-PERCENT OF SUBSOIL IS VERY SHORT. COMPARE THAT TO DROUGHT-PLAGUED CALIFORNIA. 30-PERCENT OF THE STATE’S FARMLAND TOPSOIL IS RATED AS VERY SHORT. MEANWHILE, SANTA CLAUS IS HOPEFULLY FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. OUR OWN BETSY JIBBEN WAS IN SANTA CLAUS, INDIANA YESTERDAY. THIS PHOTO SHOWS A LACK OF SNOW FOR ST. NICK. BUT THAT’S NOT UNUSUAL FOR DOWNSTATE INDIANA.NOW TAKING A LOOK AT THE WATHER MAP YOU CAN SEE MULTIPLE SYSTEMS IN THE EAST THE RAINY ONE IN THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUEING TO BRING MORE MOISTURE THERE AND SNOW AND MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WE’LL HAVE YOUR FORECAST COMING UP FIRST HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS

TEASE
NEXT IN ANALYSIS NAOMI BLOHM FROM STEWART PETERSON WILL GIVE HER INSIGHT TO THE CURRENT DAIRY MARKETS. NEW STATISTICS ARE SHOWING SOME KIDS ARE MAKING HEALTHIER CHOICES IN THE CAFETERIA LINE. FIND OUT WHAT THEY’RE SELECTING...AND WHY...LATER ON IN THE COUNTRY. ENTER FOR YOUR CHANCE TO WIN TWO REGISTRATIONS TO THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR - JANUARY 24TH THROUGH THE 27TH IN CHICAGO. PACKAGE INCLUDES A THREE-NIGHT HOTEL STAY, PLUS A TWO-HUNDRED DOLLAR VISA GIFT CARD! GO TO TOPPRODUCERSEMINAR.COM/SWEEPSTAKES.

FLOOR OF THE CME
AGRIBUSINESS TODAY, BROUGHT TO YOU BY YAMAHA - MAKERS OF VIKING SIDE- BY-SIDES. YAMAHA - REAL WORLD TOUGHIN AGRIBUSINESS LETS SEE HOW MARKETS KICKED OFF THE WEEK. WE HEAD TO THE FLOOR FO THE CME IN CHICAGO FOR MORE. HI IT’S BEEN A HIGHER DAY IN AND ALL THE GRAIN MARKETS LED HIGHER BY THE SOY COMPLEX. SOYBEANS ESPECIALLY MOVING HIGHER ON NEWS THAT CHINA BOUGHT FOUR HUNDRED SIXTY TWO THOUSAND TONS OF SOYBEANS FROM THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND THAT’S BIG NEWS BECAUSE THERE’S BEEN A LOT OF TALK THAT DEMAND FROM CHINA IS SHIFTING DOWN TO SOUTH AMERICA AND MAYBE IT IS BUT TO HAVE THIS TYPE OF A SALE REALLY KIND OF POINTS OUT THE FACT THAT WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF SOYBEANS TO SELL AND OUR PRICES ARE REALLY VERY VERY COMPETITIVE. AND ESPECIALLY AFTER THE ELECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PROBLEMS BETWEEN THE NEW ADMINISTRATION AND THE CHINESE TO HAVE THAT TYPE OF SALE IS REALLY IMPRESSING THE MARKET HERE TODAY THE DOG OF THE MARKET HERE TODAY HAS BEEN THE WHEAT MARKET WHICH IS STILL FEELING THE PINCH OF THE STRONGER DOLLAR AND THE SOME STRONG COMPETITION FROM PLACES LIKE AUSTRALIA AND RUSSIA FOR BUSINESS. THANKS VERY MUCH THIS IS JACK SCOVILLE I’M VICE PRESIDENT PRICE FUTURES GROUP HERE IN THE CME GROUP FLOOR WITH SOME COMMENTS FOR THE MARKETS.

ANALYSIS
DAIRY PRICES HAVE STRUGGLED MUCH OF THE YEAR IN THE U-S. BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN RECENT WEEKS. TYNE MORGAN LOOKS AT DAIRY MARKETS IN TODAY’S ANALYSIS. HERE NOW NAOMI BLOOM OF STEWART PETERSON. LETS TALK ABOUT THESE MILK PRICES. I MEAN WE’VE SEEN AN IMPRESSIVE RUN UP IN MILK PRICES HERE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER A TWENTY SIXTEEN. WHAT’S DRIVING? THE DEMAND SIDE AND ESPECIALLY EXPORT DEMAND. YEAR OVER DATE EXPORTS FOR ALL DAIRY PRODUCTS IS UP THREE PERCENT AND THAT’S A REALLY GREAT THING CONSIDERING THE DOLLAR WORKING HIGHER. AND IT’S PRIMARILY BUTTER AND THE WHEY MARKETS LEADING THE WAY. WE HAVE DOMESTIC CHEESE DEMAND THAT HAS BEEN SOLID. OUR EXPORTS HAVEN’T BEEN GREAT, BUT FOR THE PAST SIX WEEKS WE’VE SEEN CHEESE DISAPPEARANCE AND SO THAT’S SUPPORTIVE. BUT TO GET TOO EXCITED BECAUSE WE ARE OVERSUPPLIED WITH MILK PRODUCTION RIGHT NOW. AND WE SAW THE MOST RECENT OCTOBER OVERPRODUCTION REPORT WHERE IT WAS TWO POINT FIVE PERCENT HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO. AND SEPTEMBER PRODUCTION REPORT AS TWO PERCENT HIGHER RIGHT THAN YEAR AGO LEVELS. SO WE SEE THE DEMAND TAPER OFF, WE COULD PROBABLY SEE PRICES SLIDE HERE A LITTLE. SO THAT DEMAND THE TREND IS THAT A SEASONAL THING I MEAN DO WE TYPICALLY SEE MORE DAIRY DEMAND TO THIS TIME OF YEAR? ABSOLUTELY. AS FAR AS HOLIDAY NEEDS AND THINGS LIKE THAT. SO THAT COULD BE SOMETHING WHERE THINGS COULD TAPER OFF. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, DAIRY IS A GOOD THING. AND PEOPLE ARE EATING IT MORE YEAR-ROUND. ESPECIALLY AS YOU’VE SEEN WITH CHEESE IT IS AN ALL THE TIME THING. SO HEADING IN A TWENTY SEVENTEEN CONTEND THE SCENE THAT WE HAVE THIS THIS MASSIVE PRODUCTION OUT THERE BUT WE DO HAVE THE DEMAND, WHAT’S YOUR OUTLOOK ON PRICES HEADING INTO THE NEW YEAR? I WOULD SAY MORE LIKE A SIDEWAYS TREND. BECAUSE PEOPLE I THINK ARE A LITTLE HESITANT TO SEE PRICES GO TOO MUCH HIGHER. BUT AS LONG AS DEMAND CAN STAY THERE WILL PROBABLY SEE MILK STAY IN THE SIXTEEN DOLLAR AREA MAY BE LOW SIXTIES MID SIXTIES, RIGHT NOW WE’RE IN HIGH SIXTEENS. AS LONG AS THE DEMAND IS THERE WE WILL SEE GOOD, SOLID PRICES IN FIRST QUARTER. JUST BE AWARE AND HAVE PLAN B READY IN CASE DEMAND EASES. BUT WOULD YOU SAY MORE ROOM TO THE UPSIDE OR IS THERE MORE ROOM TO THE DOWNSIDE AT THIS POINT? THAT IS A REALLY GOOD QUESTION. I DON’T REALLY SEE TOO MUCH MORE UPSIDE BECAUSE YOU WOULD HAVE TO SEE DEMAND INCREASED THAT MUCH MORE. THIS HAS BEEN A NICE GIFT SO I WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARDS SIDEWAYS FOR HERE ON OUT FOR A LITTLE BIT. THANKS SO MUCH NAOMI BLOOM STAY WITH US WE’LL BE BACK WITH MORE AGDAY IN JUST A MOMENT TO DISCUSS MARKETING STRATEGIES CALL 800-334-9779 OR VISIT STEWART- PETERSON.COM.ENTER FOR YOUR CHANCE TO WIN TWO REGISTRATIONS TO THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR - JANUARY 24TH THROUGH THE 27TH IN CHICAGO. PACKAGE INCLUDES A THREE-NIGHT HOTEL STAY, PLUS A TWO-HUNDRED DOLLAR VISA GIFT CARD! GO TO TOPPRODUCERSEMINAR.COM/SWEEPSTAKES.

WEATHER
AGDAY WEATHER - BROUGHT TO YOU BY CORVUS PRE-EMERGENCE CORN HERBICIDE FROM BAYER. THE ONLY HERBICIDE TO OFFER THREE LEVELS OF DEFENSE AGAINST WEEDS - BURNDOWN, RESIDUAL AND REACTIVATION WITH RAIN.. WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY. METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN, LOOKING AT THIS THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEAST BOY, LOTS OF RAIN. YEAH THAT’S TWO IN A ROW. NOW OBVIOUSLY IT’S A DROUGHT THAT NEEDS A LOT MORE OF THESE BUT THIS IS A GOOD START ANYWAY. AND YOU CAN SEE HOW WIDESPREAD THAT RAIN IS REALLY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC ALL THE WAY BACK IN THE SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AND IT’S ALL COME THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RAIN PRETTY GOOD THIS MORNING EASTERN TENNESSEE NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS. NORTHERN SYSTEM LOW HAS SOME SNOW WITH IT AND THAT’S A BLAST OF ARCTIC AI.R NOW AS YOU WATCH THE WEATHER MAP YOU’RE GOING TO NOTICE A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COMING SOUTHWARD. THAT’S THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR. THIS IS A COLD BLAST OF AIR, DON’T GET ME WRONG. BUT IT’S ONLY GOING SO FAR SOUTH BECAUSE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. SO LET’S PULL ALL TOGETHER BUT THE MAPS INTO MOTION YOU CAN SEE ARE BOTH THAT THE SOUTH THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST, THE WESTERN SYSTEM OF SOUTH FLOW EASTWARD AND THAT’S GOING TO CAN A STALL OUT THE FIRST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST. SEE THE SNOW THEN WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF TOMORROW. AND A LOT OF THE EFFECT SNOW REALLY WON’T GET GOING UNTIL A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE KIND OF SHIFT THE WINDS A LITTLE BIT. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL. SO THERE IS TOMORROW MORNING SEE SOME SNOW BREAKING OUT WITH THAT SOUTHERN SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN THE MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, EVEN NORTHERN ARKANSAS, BECAUSE THIS AIR IS SO COLD. BUT AGAIN THAT IS THE COLDEST PART OF THIS WHOLE AIR MASS THAT SECONDARY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING INTO THE WEST COAST SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS FAR SOUTH OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS TIME AS THAT SYSTEM COMES IN. THERE IS A RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWENTY FOUR HOURS LET’S ADD ON THE NEXT THIRTY SIX. MOST OF IT’S BEEN IN THE SOUTHEAST OBVIOUSLY ON OUR COMPUTER MODEL SHOWING SEVERAL INCHES IN MANY PLACES. MOST OF THE REST OF THIS IS SNOW. SO LET’S GO TO THAT MAP THAT’S THE PAST TWENTY FOUR HOURS A LOT OF IT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND ANY CAN SEE IS WE ADD IN THE NEXT THIRTY SIX HOURS WILL START TO SEE THAT LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SOME US SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREA ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. FORTIES AND FIFTIES ARE STILL IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GOING TO BE A WHILE GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO IN SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NORTHWESTERN PLAINS THIRTIES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD AND THEN YOU CAN SEE SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THAT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. HERE IS THE JET STREAM IN THIS A WHY THINGS STALL OUT DON’T GO AWAY END OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE SHOT OF COLD AIR GOES ZONAL BY THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHOT COMING IN AND WHEN YOU HAVE A SPLIT FLOW LIKE THIS, YOU’LL HAVE THE COLD AIR REALLY COLD AIR OF THE NORTH WITH STAYS PRETTY MILD WELL OF THE SOUTH. THAT’S A LOOK ACROSS A COUNTRY NOW LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS FIRST OF ALL FOR BAKERSFIELD CALIFORNIA MIX OF SUN SHINE CLOUD RATHER COLD HIGH OF FIFTY SIX DEGREES. COLLEGE STATION TEXAS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD HIGH OF SIXTY TWO. AND BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY CLOUDY IN TURNING COLDER RAIN AT TIMES HIGH OF FIFTY ONE AND FALLING. THANKS MIKE.

TEASE
A PROGRAMMING NOTE FOR YOU. COMING UP WEDNESDAY WE’LL HAVE A SPECIAL EDITION OF AGDAY. WE FOCUS ON AMERICAN AGRICULTURE’S ROLE IN WORLD WAR TWO. WEDNESDAY MARKS 75 YEARS SINCE THE ATTACK ON PEARL HARBOR WHICH LED TO THE U-S ENTERING THE WAR. A UNIQUE LOOK AT HISTORY, HERE ON AGDAY. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR HIGHER IN 2017...AND MUCH OF THAT INCREASE IS DUE TO DAIRY. WE’LL TAKE A LOOK NEXT IN OUR DAIRY REPORT. AND THE U-S DAIRY SECTOR IS GETTING HELP FROM SCHOOLS. FIND OUT HOW BREAKFAST IS A KEY ASPECT OF THAT DEMAND. AGDAY - BROUGHT TO YOU BY FARMER’S EDGE. FOR THE LATEST IN MAKING SENSE OF YOUR DATA - VISIT GROWYOURRETURNS.COM.

DAIRY REPORT
ON THE DAIRY REPORT, THE USDA IS OUT WITH NEW DAIRY EXPORT NUMBERS. OVERALL, IT EXPECTS TOTAL EXPORTS TO GROW BY $1 BILLION IN 2017 WITH DAIRY EXPORTS TAKING UP A BIG CHUNK OF THAT GROWTH. THE LATEST EXPORT PROJECTIONS SHOW DAIRY GROWING BY $500 MILLION DOLLARS TO $5.3 BILLION IN 2017. USDA DOES EXPECT DAIRY IMPORTS INTO AMERICA TO RISE $200 MILLION IN THE COMING YEAR. ONE OF THE BIG EXPORT TARGETS IS CHINA. ACCORDING TO OUR PARTNERS AT FARM JOURNAL’S MILK MAGAZINE, CHINESE IMPORT VOLUME OF DAIRY PRODUCTS GREW 18 PERCENT ON A MILK EQUIVALENT BASIS THROUGH THE FIRST EIGHT MONTHS OF 2016. BREAKING IT DOWN, CHEESE, FLUID MILK, CREAM AND INFANT FORMULA ARE ALL ON PACE FOR A RECORD YEAR--EVEN BEATING THE HIGH WATER MARK SET BACK IN 2014.IN THE FIRST EIGHT MONTHS OF 2016, CHINESE FLUID MILK AND CREAM IMPORTS GREW 63 PERCENT COMPARED TO LAST YEAR. CHEESE AND INFANT FORMULA IS UP MORE THAN 30 PERCENT. SPEAKING OF OUTLOOKS, ANALYSTS EXPECT 2017 HAY PRICES TO REMAIN STEADY. THEY SAY STRONG SUPPLIES AND A LITTLE SOFTER DEMAND IS LIKELY TO KEEP PRESSURE ON THE INDUSTRY. EXCEPT FOR PREMIUM ALFALFA...THAT’S EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. WITH MORE THAN 56 MILLION ACRES HARVESTED THIS YEAR, STRONG SUPPLIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE CARRYOVER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WINTER. THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST ARE THE TWO REGIONS WHERE FARMERS ARE FEEDING UP BALES DUE TO DROUGHT. AND FROM DAIRY HERD MANAGEMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE ROBOTIC MILKERS MAY BE HERE TO STAY -- AT LEAST FOR SMALL TO MID-SIZE OPERATION. CURRENT ESTIMATES SAY ROBOTS ARE MILKING ON 15,000 DAIRY FARMS ACROSS THE WORLD MILK WITH MOST HERD SIZES RANGING FROM 50 TO 250 COWS. THE MOST POPULAR LOCATION FOR ROBOTICS THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN WESTERN EUROPE WHERE LABOR COSTS ARE HIGHER THAN MANY REGIONS OF THE WORLD.FARMS USING ROBOTICS TEND TO SEE A REDUCTION OF 20% TO 40% IN LABOR HOURS. ON THE LARGER FARM SIDE, THERE ARE ESTIMATES THAT FEWER THAN 60 FARMS ACROSS THE GLOBE MILKING 500 COWS OR MORE WITH BOX ROBOTS. CURRENTLY, FEWER THAN 20 ROBOTIC ROTARIES ARE IN USE.

TEASE
NEW STATISTICS SHOW MORE STUDENTS ARE CHOOSING TO EAT BREAKFAST AT SCHOOL. NEXT FIND ONE REASON WHY KIDS ARE MAKING HEALTHIER CHOICES IN THE CAFETERIA LINE. ENTER FOR YOUR CHANCE TO WIN TWO REGISTRATIONS TO THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR - JANUARY 24TH THROUGH THE 27TH IN CHICAGO. PACKAGE INCLUDES A THREE-NIGHT HOTEL STAY, PLUS A TWO-HUNDRED DOLLAR VISA GIFT CARD! GO TO TOPPRODUCERSEMINAR.COM/SWEEPSTAKES.

IN THE COUNTRY
IN THE COUNTRY - BROUGHT TO YOU BY KUBOTA’S BX AND L SERIES COMPACT TRACTORS - AVAILABLE NOW WITH A SIX-YEAR LIMITED POWERTRAIN WARRANTY. LEARN MORE TODAY AT YOUR LOCAL KUBOTA DEALER. BREAKFAST IS OFTEN CALLED THE MOST IMPORTANT MEAL OF THE DAY. NEW STATS JUST RELEASED BY THE AMERICAN DAIRY ASSOCIATION MIDEAST SHOW MORE KIDS ARE TAKING TIME TO EAT BREAKFAST AT SCHOOL. IN THIS REPORT PROVIDED BY THE A-D-A, CLARK POWELL SHOWS US WHAT IMPACT THOSE DECISIONS IN THE CAFETERIA ARE HAVING IN THE CLASSROOM. MIDDLE SCHOOL STUDENT ASHTON OILER STARTS HIS DAY WITH A ROUTINE THAT HELPS HIM GET READY TO LEARN, EVEN IF HE IS RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. “WELL, I LIKE GET TO SCHOOL LATE, SO I GO GET MY BREAKFAST AND GO TO CLASS.” NEW NATIONAL STATISTICS FROM THE AMERICAN DAIRY ASSOCIATION MIDEAST SHOW JUST ONE IN FOUR CHILDREN ARE EATING BREAKFAST AT SCHOOL. BUT THANKS TO LOCAL DAIRY FARMERS, MORE KIDS AT ASHTON’S SCHOOL ARE EATING BREAKFAST AND THE MENU IS GROWING. “THERE’S EITHER CEREAL OR THE MAIN BREAKFAST. AND I SOMETIMES PICK CEREAL AND SOMETIMES IT’S A SMOOTHIE.” NEARLY HALF OF ALL STUDENTS IN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA SCHOOLS RECEIVING A FUEL UP TO PLAY 60 GRANT EAT BREAKFAST AT SCHOOL. THE GRANTS ARE PART OF A NATIONAL PROGRAM CO-CREATED WITH THE N-F-L AND FUNDED BY DAIRY FARMERS IN EACH COMMUNITY. “THEY LOVE BEING INVOLVED IN THEIR COMMUNITIES. THEY HAVE CHILDREN. THEY HAVE GRANDCHILDREN. THEY HAVE FAMILIES. AND MANY OF THEM SERVE ON SCHOOL BOARDS AND SERVE AS COACHES AND ARE COMMUNITY LEADERS.” IMPROVING SCHOOL BREAKFAST PROGRAMS WITH SMOOTHIES IS JUST ONE OF THE MENU CHANGES DAIRY FARMERS HELP MAKE POSSIBLE. AND IT’S LEADING MORE KIDS TO CAFETERIA LINES. NATIONALLY, 80 PERCENT OF KIDS ARE DRINKING MORE MILK AND EATING MORE YOGURT AT SCHOOLS RECEIVING DAIRY-FARMER FUNDING. SOMETHING NUTRITION DIRECTORS SAY IS MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN THE CLASSROOM. “IF WE CAN GET THEM SOMETHING LIKE A SMOOTHIE WHERE THERE’S A LOT OF PROTEIN IN IT THAT WILL KIND OF GIVE THEM SOME ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE DAY INSTEAD OF JUST THEM HITTING A WALL.” EASY OPTIONS THAT ARE HELPING ASHTON AND HIS FRIENDS GET THEIR SCHOOL DAY STARTED ON A HEALTHY NOTE. “I FEEL LIKE ENERGIZED.” IN PLAIN CITY, OHIO, THIS IS CLARK POWELL REPORTING.

CLOSE
THAT’S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE’RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR TYNE MORGAN AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I’M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.