TODAY ON AGDAY
FEB. 10, 2016
OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -USDA’S SUPPLY DEMAND NUMBERS ROLL OUT. AND WHEAT CONTINUES TO LOSE TRACTION.
“THE WHEAT MARKET IS THE ONE THAT PROBABLY COMES OUT THE WORST IN THESE REPORTS.”
IN AGRIBUSINESS CHIP FLORY WITH PROFARMER TAKES A LOOK AT THE PRESSURE BUILDING AGAINST WHEAT PRICES.
“BECAUSE WHEAT GROWERS HAVE GOTTEN COMPLETELY DISGUSTED NOT SO MUCH WITH THE FUTURES MARKET THAT IS HARD ENOUGH TO TAKE, BUT WITH THE CASH MARKET. “
AND PUT ‘EM UP, THIS 4-H BOXING CLUB IS HELPING KIDS LEARN THE IMPORTANCE OF GOOD HEALTH.
USDA RELEASES SUPPLY-AND-DEMAND DATA:
GOOD MORNING I’M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. GLOBAL GRAIN SUPPLIES TOOK CENTER STAGE TUESDAY AS USDA UNVEILED ITS FEBRUARY SUPPLY-AND-DEMAND DATA.
USDA INCREASED ITS FORECAST FOR SOUTH AMERICAN CORN PRODUCTION. BRAZIL COMES IN AT 84 MILLION METRIC TONS AND ARGENTINA AT 27 MILLION METRIC TONS. BOTH NUMBERS ARE ABOVE THE RANGE OF PREREPORT EXPECTATIONS.
TURNING TO SOYBEAN PRODUCTION, BRAZIL CHARTS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED AT 100 MILLION METRIC TONS WHILE ARGENTINA’S PRODUCTION PUSHED HIGHER TO 58-AND-A-HALF MILLION MMT.
DOMESTIC DATA:
ON THE DOMESTIC FRONT -USDA BOOSTED ITS ESTIMATE OF U-S CORN AND SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS FOR 2015-16. BOTH ARE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED IN PREREPORT ESTIMATES.
GLOBAL STOCKS:
MARKET RALLY RADIO HOST CHIP FLORY LOOKS AT THE GLOBAL STOCKS, CHIP.
“LET’S LOOK AT THE PRODUCTION SIDE OF THINGS WHEN WE LOOK AT THE GLOBAL NUMBERS...WE HAD AN INCREASE IN ARGENTINE CORN CROP, AN INCREASE IN BRAZILIAN CORN CROP AND AN INCREASE IN ARGENTINE BEAN CROP. YOU THROW THOSE ALL TOGETHER AND THAT’S BASICALLY WHAT THE TRADE WAS LOOKING FOR THERE.
STRONG DOLLAR HURTS WHEAT EXPORTS:
AND AS CHIP MENTIONED THERE WERE SOME BIG SURPRISES IN WHEAT SUPPLIES.
THE AG DEPARTMENT BOOSTED U-S WHEAT ENDING STOCKS IN PART BECAUSE IT EXPECTS THE U-S WILL EXPORT FEWER BUSHELS THIS YEAR. USDA ALSO PUSHED GLOBAL WHEAT SUPPLIES MUCH HIGHER -INTO RECORD TERRITORY. IT WAS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANALYSTS EXPECTED.
ANALYSTS SAY THAT’S WORRISOME TO A MARKET ALREADY UNDER PRESSURE BECAUSE OF A STRONG US DOLLAR.
“WHEAT IS A MARKET WHERE THE STRONG DOLLAR HURTS THE MOST BECAUSE IT’S WHERE MOST OF THE BIG WHEAT IMPORTERS ARE PRICE SENSTIVE. WHEAT IS TYPICALLY IMPORTED BY COUNTRIES THAT ARE POORER, ALGERIA, EGYPT FOR EXAMPLE ARE TWO VERY LARGE IMPORTERS AND THEY’RE VERY PRICE SENSITIVE AND THE VERY STRONG DOLLAR WORKS AGAINST THE UNITED STATES’ ABILITY TO EXPORT.”
COTTON CARRYOVER:
PROFARMER SAYS COTTON GOT THE MOST NEGATIVE REPORT WITH THE AG DEPARTMENT PROJECTING A 500THOUSAND BALE INCREASE IN CARRYOVER.
USDA IS PROJECTING A FIVE PERCENT REDUCTION OF COTTON EXPORTS FROM THE U-S. MOST OF THAT IS ATTRIBUTED TO LOWER IMPORTS BY CHINA.
COTTON PLANTING EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS PLANTING SEASON:
AND AS WE REPORTED TUESDAY, THE NATIONAL COTTON COUNCIL IS ESTIMATING A SIX PERCENT INCREASE IN COTTON PLANTINGS THIS SEASON.
RED MEAT PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE:
USDA ALSO INCREASING ITS RED MEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST THIS WEEK, DESPITE LOWER CATTLE NUMBERS.
LOOKING AT PRICES, USDA RAISING ITS CATTLE PRICE FORECAST, AS ITS EXPECTING HIGHER PRICES THIS QUARTER.
HOGS:
ON THE HOG SIDE, THE AGENCY EXPECTS HIGHER SLAUGHTER NUMBERS, PUSHING DOWN HOG SHORTTERM HOG PRICES. BUT ON THE YEAR, USDA FORECASTS UNCHANGED PRICES.
DAIRY PRODUCTION DIGITS EXPECTS TO MOVE UP:
AS FOR DAIRY, THE AGENCY RAISING THE MILK PRODUCTION FORECAST FOR THE YEAR DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CATTLE NUMBERS IN THE LATEST INVENTORY REPORT. WITH AN INCREASE IN PRODUCTION, USDA ALSO LOWERING THEIR MILK AND WHEY PRICE FORECAST.
PROTEIN SUPPLY GROWTH:
AT THE RECENT CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION IN SAN DIEGO, ANALYSTS WITH CATTLE FAX SAY GLOBAL PROTEIN SUPPLIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE. UP 85 BILLION POUNDS SINCE 2006 AND MOST OF THAT GROWTH HAS BEEN IN PORK AND POULTRY.
LARGEST SUPPLIES HAVE HELPED PUSH RETAIL PRICES LOWER.
HOWEVER, THE DROP HAS BEEN SLOWER ON THE BEEF SIDE...AS RETAIL BEEF PRICES REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG. CATTLE FAX EXPECTS THOSE PRICES TO CONTINUE FALLING IN 2016.
ADDING THAT AS THE PRICES WIDEN BETWEEN PORK AND POULTRY COMPARED TO BEEF, THERE IS A CONCERN THAT COULD BEGIN IMPACTING DEMAND AT THE GROCERY STORE.
USDA PREDICTS 2016 FARM INCOME WILL DROP:
USDA ALSO RELEASING IT’S PROJECTIONS FOR NET FARM INCOME IN 2016. IT EXPECTS ANOTHER 3 PERCENT DECLINE TO 54 POINT 8 BILLION DOLLARS. THAT’S THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2002.
IF REALIZED, NET FARM INCOMES WILL BE 56 PERCENT LOWER THIS YEAR THAN IT WAS DURING THE RECORD HIGH YEAR SET IN 2013.
CASH RECEIPTS EXPECTED TO DROP 9 POINT 6 BILLION DOLLARS..NEARLY 8 BILLION OF THAT IN THE ANIMAL AND ANIIMAL PRODUCT CATEGORY.
CROP COMMENTS:
GOOD MORNING, CLINTON. TODAY’S CROP COMMENTS TAKE US TO ONTARIO CANADA. A JERSEY OPERATION SENT US THIS PHOTO OF CALVES STAYING NICE AND WARM INSIDE WITH PLENTY OF FRESH STRAW. BUT OUTSIDE THE TEMPERATURE ISN’T TOO BAD EITHER.
THEY SAY THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING SEASONALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS AT -8 CELCIUS. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAP YOU CAN SEE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS DIVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND NOW HERE ARE SOME OF YOUR HOMETOWN TEMPS.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, CHIP FLORY RETURNS TO TALK WHEAT AND WHEAT MARKETS IN TODAY’S ANALYSIS. AND 4H’ERS HEAD TO THE BOXING RING TO FULFILL ONE OF THE CLUB’S MOTTOS -"MY HEALTH FOR BETTER LIVING”.
CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS LETS CHECK ON TUESDAY’S MARKET ACTION FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO.
AGRIBUSINESS:
TUESDAY’S AFTERNOON GRAIN REPORT AND HERE’S WHAT WE’RE SEEING. A WHOLE BUNCH OF NOTHING AS WE UPDATED THIS MORNING. WE’RE REALLY JUST TESTING THESE LOWS HERE BUT THERE’S NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY. THERE’S NOT A LOT EXCITEMENT. THERE’S NOT REALLY A LOT OF INTEREST. I THINK WHAT YOU’RE REALLY SEEING IS AN OVERFLOW FROM THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE GENERAL MARKETS. I THINK THAT RIGHT NOW WE’RE SEEING BECAUSE OF ALL OF THE INTERVENTION IT’S JUST WASTING AWAY AND TAKING AWAY OPPORTUNITY.THIS IS TODD HORWITZ FROM BUBBA TRADING DOT COM COMING TO YOU FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME GROUP IN CHICAGO.
AGRIBUSINESS:
IT’S BEEN TOUGH TO GET WHEAT GROWERS EXCITED ABOUT THE CROP IN THE LAST YEAR OR SO.
TYNE MORGAN JOINS US WITH ANALYSIS THIS MORNING TO DISCUSSION THE CHALLENGES FACING FARMERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
CHIP FLORY HERE WITH PROFARMER, ALSO HOST OF MARKET RALLY. CHIP, WHEN WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE WHEAT CROP AND WHEAT SEEDINGS, I MEAN USDA HAD A MAJOR CUT IN THEIR PROJECTIONS.> ABSOLUTELY, YOU KNOW AND I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS GOING INTO IT AND WE TALKED ABOUT IT ON MARKET RALLY THAT WE ANTICIPATED A BIGGER THAN EXPECTED CUT.> REALLY, WHY?> BECAUSE WHEAT GROWERS HAVE GOTTEN COMPLETELY DISGUSTED NOT SO MUCH WITH THE FUTURES MARKET THAT IS HARD ENOUGH TO TAKE, BUT WITH THE CASH MARKET.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, LOOKS LIKE THAT COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE COUNTRY. YEAH, THE FIRST ONE IS OFF OF FLORIDA. THE REALLY COLD AIR IS COMING SOUTHWARD AS YOU CAN SEE THERE AND THAT’S GOING TO BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MOST OF THAT AREA. AND THERE’S ALSO ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN MONTANA.
THAT WILL BE DIVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING MOST AREAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WESTERN AREA DRY FOR ONE OF THE FIRST TIMES THIS WINTER THAT WE’VE SEEN A PERIOD OUT WEST. DON’T WORRY WEST COAST, YOU’LL SEE MORE MOISTURE SOON. YOU’LL GET A LITTLE BIT ON THE FRONT TO SOUTH SHORE RIGHT NOW. YOU CAN SEE AS YOU PUT THE MAPS INTO MOTION TODAY THIS FIRST SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITH PARTS INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
NOW LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. WE’LL HEAD TO SHERIDAN WYOMING FIRST OF ALL. IT’S PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 54 DEGREES. JONESBORO, ARKANSAS. THERE’S LOTS OF SUNSHINE BUT CHILLY.THE HIGH IS 39. ROCHESTER, NEW YORK HAS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGH IS AROUND 31.
TEASE:
EGG PRICES START TO RETREAT FOLLOWING LAST YEAR’S AVIAN FLU OUTBREAK. THAT STORY WHEN WE COME BACK. AND LATER -FISTS ARE FLYING AT A 4-H MEETING. WHAT CAUSED THE FRAY? DETAILS LATER ON AGDAY.
CHIPOTLE OPENS DOORS WITH NEW PROTOCOLS:
CHIPOLTE STORES ARE BACK OPEN TODAY AFTER CLOSING EARLIER THIS WEEK TO DISCUSS FOOD SAFETY WITH EMPLOYEES. THE FOOD COMPANY SHUTTERING ALL 2000 STORES DURING THE LUNCH RUSH. THE COMPANY STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF SEVERAL FOOD RELATED ILLNESS OUTBREAKS IN 2015.
THE BIG CHANGES INCLUDE NEW DNA TESTING OF EVERY INGREDIENT. MANY OF THE VEGGIES WILL BE CHOPPED AT LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE RESTAURANT. NEW TRAINING AND NEW PROTOCOLS FOR EMPLOYEES.
LYME DISEASE TRACED TO NEW SPECIES OF BACTERIA:
FOR THOSE FOLKS SPENDING LOTS OF TIME OUTDOORS, SCIENTISTS MAKING A NEW DISCOVERY IN REGARDS TO LYME DISEASE.
THE C-D-C, MAYO CLINIC AND HEALTH OFFICIALS FROM MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN AND NORHT DAKOTA SAY THEY’VE FOUND A NEW SPECIES OF BACTERIA THAT CAUSES LYME DISEASE IN PEOPLE.
DOCTORS SAID THEY GOT SUSPICIOUS WHEN THEY TESTED PEOPLE THEY THOUGHT HAD LYME DISEASE BUT GOT UNUSUAL RESULTS.
SO FAR THE NEW LYME SPECIES IN ONLY FOUND IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
EGG PRICES STARTING TO DROP AFTER AVIAN FLU OUTBREAK:
NEW NUMBERS PUTTING 2015 EGG PRICES IN PERSPECTIVE.
RETAIL PRICES JUMPING NEARLY 21 PERCENT IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF THE YEAR AS THE INDUSTRY BATTLED AN OUTBREAK OF AVIAN FLU EARLIER IN THE YEAR.
ROUGHLY 11 PERCENT OF THE NATION’S HENS WERE DESTROYED.
SEPTEMBER ALONE SAW PRICES 36 PERCENT ABOVE THE SAME MONTH IN 2014. THOSE PRICES ARE STARTING TO COME BACK DOWN...FALLING 3 PERCENT FOR IN Q 4.
STOCK SHOW WINNER PLANS COLLEGE:
AND TAKE A LOOK AT THIS PHOTO OF 14-YEAR-OLD JAGGER HORN OF ABILENE TEXAS AND HIS STEER BIG BOY.
THE DUO JUST WON THE GRAND CHAMPION STEER PRIZE AT THE FORT WORTH STOCK SHOW AND RODEO. THE SALE OF BIG BOY EARNING JAGGER A COOL 210THOUSAND DOLLARS.
JAGGER SAYS HE PLANS TO USE THE MONEY FOR COLLEGE--AND RIGHT NOW HE’S LEANING TOWARD OKLAHOMA STATE-JAGGER
“I RECOMMEND IT!”
CONGRATS AND CONGRATS TO ALL THOSE FAMILIES COMPETE IN SHOWS THIS YEAR.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, SOMEONE’S TAKING A BIG SWING AT OUR FRIEND, CHARLES DENNEY...
“4H’ERS IN ONE TENNESSEE COMMUNITY LEARN BOXING SKILLS AND NUTRITION. ALL IN A FUN WAY TO GET FIT. THAT STORY NEXT ON AGDAY “
IN THE COUNTRY:
YOUNG PEOPLE IN ONE TENNESSEE COMMUNITY ARE THROWING PUNCHES, ALL IN THE NAME OF FITNESS, AND LEARNING ABOUT HEALTHY EATING TOO. IT’S PART OF A 4-H PROGRAM WHERE BOXING AND NUTRITION MEET IN THE CENTER OF THE RING. CHARLES DENNEY HAS MORE ON A FIGHT CLUB THAT’S ALL ABOUT GOOD HEALTH.
CLOSING:
THAT’S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE’RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND BETSY JIBBEN, I’M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I’M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. THURSDAY ON AGDAY, WE SORT THROUGH A NUTRIENT DIET THAT EAST COAST FARMERS FACE EVERY GROWING SEASON.
PLUS, EQUIPMENT MAKERS SHOW-OFF THEIR NEWEST INVESTMENTS AT THE NATIONAL FARM MACHINERY SHOW. WATCH US WEEKDAYS ON AGDAY.
