On News page 2 of this week’s Pro Farmer newsletter, we explain why we’re concerned USDA’s Sept. 28 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report could hold another “September surprise” for the corn market. Leading up to that report, watch corn and soybean basis for clues to the “true” supply coming to market.
Corn harvest is at a record pace with 15% of the U.S. crop in the cart by Sept. 9. Since then, harvest activity ramped up and we expect harvest to be about one-third complete by Sept. 16. Early harvest activity in the Midwest is moving corn to market as farmers fulfill fall-delivery forward contracts. Once that’s done (with harvest at about 50% complete), corn will start getting locked up in the bin. At that point, look for basis to strengthen.
The story is similar on soybeans, but the market is still not providing any incentive to put beans in the bin. That should move more of the bean crop to market, limiting basis gains.
